我国关税调整方案明日起实施，影响几何？

Group 1: Import Tariff Adjustments - The State Council Tariff Commission announced adjustments to import tariffs for steel, coal, non-ferrous metals, cotton, and urea effective January 1, 2026 [1] - The total import quota for cotton in 2026 is set at 894,000 tons, with a general tariff rate of 125% within the quota and a sliding scale tax for imports outside the quota [2][3] - The sliding tax mechanism for cotton aims to stabilize domestic market prices by adjusting import costs based on price fluctuations [3] Group 2: Impact on Cotton Industry - The new cotton import quota system allows for year-round applications, facilitating easier access for companies with previous import records [3] - Adjustments in cotton planting areas in major production regions like Xinjiang are expected to impact market dynamics significantly [3] - The low tariff rate of 1% for urea and other fertilizers is intended to ensure food security and stabilize agricultural production costs [6][7] Group 3: Steel and Coal Market Insights - The tariff adjustments for steel and coal remain largely unchanged from 2025, with zero tariffs on recycled steel materials to encourage imports [4][5] - China's crude steel production reached 892 million tons in the first 11 months of the year, accounting for 54% of global output, with steel exports hitting a record high of nearly 11 million tons [4] - The overall supply-demand balance in the steel market is stable, although there are pressures on raw material supply due to rising iron ore inventories [5] Group 4: Urea and Fertilizer Market Dynamics - The continuation of the 1% low tax rate for urea is seen as a measure to enhance market confidence and prevent price volatility in agricultural inputs [7][9] - Despite the low tax rate, the direct impact on the urea industry is minimal due to sufficient domestic production capacity, with annual output exceeding 70 million tons [8] - The low tax rate policy is expected to improve the supply-demand balance in the urea market, enhancing the industry's resilience to risks [9] Group 5: Non-Ferrous Metals Tariff Stability - The import tariffs for copper and aluminum products remain unchanged, reflecting a strategy focused on stabilizing domestic supply and costs [10] - The unchanged tariffs aim to support domestic smelting and processing enterprises while ensuring supply chain security [10] - The policy shift includes the removal of temporary tariffs on certain products like sulfuric acid, reverting to the most-favored-nation rate [10][11]