白银将冲击125美元？专家警告：库存告急或引爆“不可抗力”冲击波

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices have surpassed $76 per ounce, doubling in value this year, leading to investor anxiety about a potential market reversal. However, historical analysis of the gold-silver ratio suggests that silver may still have significant upside potential, with supply constraints expected to trigger price surges by 2026 [1]. Group 1: Price Projections - Silver has broken its historical high of $50 per ounce, marking a significant milestone after 45 years, with $50 now seen as a new support level [1]. - If the gold-silver ratio drops from its recent peak of approximately 105 to around 59, silver could reach about $67 per ounce, assuming gold prices stabilize at $4,000 [4]. - In a bullish scenario where gold reaches $5,000 and the gold-silver ratio falls to 45, silver prices could soar to $111 per ounce [5]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Current silver supply is critically low, with Shanghai's inventory at a 10-year low and London facing tight supplies, creating a precarious situation for the market [6]. - The shifting of silver inventories between major markets like New York and London does not increase the total supply but highlights localized shortages, particularly in China, which is a major consumer of industrial silver [6]. - The potential for a significant price spike exists if industrial users face delivery issues, leading to a scenario where cash settlements may not suffice, causing prices to surge dramatically [6]. Group 3: Investor Behavior - The phenomenon of "fear of missing out" (FOMO) is likely to drive individual investors towards silver as they seek alternatives to high gold prices, perceiving silver as a more affordable option [7]. - As investors recognize the high gold prices, they may turn to silver, which appears relatively cheap, further fueling demand and potentially driving prices higher [7]. - The ongoing high gold-silver ratio may prompt investors to enter the silver market, anticipating continued upward movement in silver prices even if gold prices stabilize [7].