镍价底部特征显现 关注印尼镍矿配额审批最终结果

Core Viewpoint - The nickel market is currently facing a supply expansion cycle, with production growth significantly outpacing demand, leading to concerns about supply contraction and rising costs. Nickel prices have reached a new low since 2021, but the potential for further declines is limited, indicating a possible formation of a temporary bottom [1][4]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The recent divergence in the non-ferrous metals market shows copper and aluminum prices reaching new highs, while nickel continues to weaken, primarily due to its cyclical challenges and policy disruptions from key producing regions [1]. - Nickel production in China is projected to reach approximately 360,000 tons from January to November 2025, reflecting a substantial year-on-year increase of 19.34%. This is coupled with relatively slow growth in downstream demand, resulting in a significant accumulation of global nickel inventory, which has exceeded 310,000 tons by early December, marking an increase of over 100,000 tons for the year [2]. Group 2: Cost Dynamics - Nickel prices have fallen below the cost line for purchasing raw materials and certain integrated processes. However, the industry's minimum production costs continue to decline, leading the market to anchor around these lower costs, which diminishes strong cost support at current price levels [2]. Group 3: Policy Variables - Indonesia, the world's largest nickel supplier, has signaled potential changes that could significantly impact future supply. The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) has indicated that the mining quota for 2026 may be drastically reduced to approximately 250 million tons, down from 379 million tons in 2025 [3]. - Additionally, the Indonesian government plans to revise the pricing and tax rules for nickel, which will increase mining costs by treating cobalt and other associated minerals as independent commodities subject to royalties. This could lead to a supply gap if the mining quotas are implemented as planned, thereby raising costs across the industry [3]. - The market is highly sensitive to any potential supply contraction, especially after significant price adjustments and valuation compressions, leading to a rapid price rebound based on expectations of rising costs [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The future trajectory of nickel prices will heavily depend on the final outcomes of Indonesia's mining quota approvals and the specific implementation of related tax policies [4].