狂买黄金的人，都看懂了什么？

Core Insights - The gold market experienced a record-breaking surge in Q3 2025, with total demand increasing by 3% year-on-year to 1,313 tons, and value demand soaring by 44% to a historic $146 billion [2][4]. - Year-to-date, total gold demand reached 3,717 tons, with a value exceeding $384 billion, reflecting a 41% year-on-year increase [2]. Investment Demand - Investment demand, driven by ETFs and gold bars and coins, accounted for a significant portion of the gold market, with global investment demand reaching 537 tons in Q3, a 47% year-on-year increase [3][4]. - The surge in investment is attributed to "certainty anxiety," with geopolitical instability and expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts driving investors towards gold as a safe asset [4][6]. - The "FOMO effect" (Fear of Missing Out) has also played a role, as rising gold prices attract more investors, creating a positive feedback loop [4]. Central Bank Purchases - Central banks globally net purchased 220 tons of gold in Q3, a 28% increase from the previous quarter and a 10% year-on-year rise [6][9]. - This reflects a long-term strategic shift towards gold, with emerging market central banks actively increasing their gold reserves [7][9]. - Notable purchases included Kazakhstan (18 tons), Brazil (15 tons), and China (5 tons), indicating a trend of "de-dollarization" among central banks [7][9]. Jewelry Consumption - In contrast to investment and central bank demand, global gold jewelry consumption fell by 19% year-on-year to 371 tons in Q3, marking the worst performance for the third quarter since 2020 [10]. - High gold prices have impacted purchasing power, particularly in major markets like India and China, where demand has significantly declined [10][11]. - Despite the drop in volume, the value of jewelry consumption increased by 13% to $41 billion, indicating a shift in consumer behavior towards higher-value products [10][11]. Supply Side - Global gold supply grew by 3% year-on-year to 1,313 tons in Q3, with mine production reaching a record high of 977 tons [12]. - However, uncertainties in mining operations and lower-than-expected recycled gold supply pose challenges to future production [13][14]. - The combination of surging demand and moderate supply growth reinforces the supply-demand balance, supporting gold prices [14]. Future Trends - The future trajectory of the gold market will hinge on three key variables: the performance of the U.S. dollar and interest rates, geopolitical and economic risks, and the supply-demand gap [15][18]. - Gold is viewed as a stabilizing asset for portfolio diversification, particularly in the current complex economic environment [15][18].