“川普2.0”第一年，美元贬值近10%，跌幅十年最大

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar is experiencing its worst annual sell-off since 2017, primarily due to economic concerns stemming from the trade war and expectations of a loose monetary policy from the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1: Dollar Performance - The dollar has depreciated by 9.5% against a basket of major currencies this year, marking the largest annual decline in nearly a decade [1] - The euro has appreciated nearly 14% against the dollar, reaching its highest level since 2021 [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Divergence - The divergence in monetary policy between the Federal Reserve and other major central banks is a key driver of currency fluctuations, with traders expecting two to three rate cuts by the Fed by the end of 2026 [2] - The European Central Bank has adopted a more hawkish stance, which is expected to further weaken the dollar's attractiveness [2] Group 3: Federal Reserve Leadership Uncertainty - Uncertainty regarding the next Federal Reserve chair is contributing to the pressure on the dollar, with concerns that a new appointee may yield to political pressure for more aggressive rate cuts [3] - Investors are preparing for a potentially more interventionist Fed under new leadership, which could lead to further dollar depreciation [3] Group 4: Trade War and Investment Behavior - Despite a recent 2.5% rebound from September's lows, the dollar's overall downward trend remains intact, influenced by the trade war and economic forecasts [4] - Structural changes in investor behavior have emerged, with foreign investors increasingly hedging their dollar exposure due to market volatility following tariff announcements [5]