2026年纯碱基本面或延续供强需弱格局 价格中枢或小幅下移

Core Viewpoint - The soda ash industry is expected to continue its bearish trend in 2025 and 2026, characterized by high supply, high inventory, and low valuations, with prices likely to decline further due to weak demand and high inventory pressure [1][2]. Supply Pressure - The soda ash industry experienced high profitability from 2021 to 2023, with profits reaching 2000 yuan/ton, leading to increased operating rates and new capacity investments. However, this has resulted in a rapid transition to a bearish market [2]. - In 2025, domestic soda ash production capacity is expected to increase by 5.9 million tons, a growth rate of approximately 15%, significantly higher than in 2024. From 2023 to 2025, nearly 14 million tons of new capacity will be added, representing a cumulative increase of about 40% [2]. - For 2026, new capacity investments are expected to decrease significantly, with only a few projects coming online, which will have limited impact on supply during the year [2][3]. Demand Trends - Domestic soda ash demand is projected to decline for the first time in five years in 2025, with a decrease of approximately 90,000 tons to 35.36 million tons, a decline of about 0.3% [4]. - In 2026, total soda ash demand is expected to remain stable, with light soda demand slightly increasing and heavy soda demand slightly decreasing. The increase in light soda demand is primarily driven by the growth in lithium carbonate production [5]. - Heavy soda demand is anticipated to decrease significantly in 2026, with a projected reduction of about 400,000 tons due to pressures in the real estate and photovoltaic industries [6]. Export Dynamics - In 2025, domestic soda ash exports surged while imports dropped significantly, with exports increasing by 88.8% to 1.961 million tons and imports falling by 97.7% to 22,000 tons [7]. - The average export price for soda ash was approximately 1,331 yuan/ton, while the import price was around 1,819 yuan/ton, leading to a near-zero import volume due to price differentials [7]. - The soda ash export volume is expected to reach historical highs in 2026, with projections of 2.19 million tons, driven by increased demand from Southeast Asia and Africa [8].