Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury bond market has experienced significant volatility due to unexpected policies, and a reduction in overseas investment may lead to increased instability in bond yields in the future [1]. Group 1: Yield Curve Trends - The U.S. Treasury yield curve has shown a notable trend of inversion, particularly between the 10-year and 2-year bonds, with a record inversion of 108 basis points (BPs) observed on July 3, 2023 [2]. - As of December 31, the yield spread between the 10-year and 2-year bonds widened to 33 BPs, indicating a flattening of the yield curve [4]. - Compared to early 2025, the overall yield curve has declined by year-end 2024, with the mid to long segments becoming steeper [6]. Group 2: Economic Context for 2025 - The Federal Reserve hinted at two rate cuts in 2025, with the economy avoiding recession and inflation pressures easing from historical highs [10]. - By the end of 2025, the Fed lowered rates by 25 BPs to a range of 3.50% to 3.75%, marking a total reduction of 175 BPs since September 2024 [12]. - Approximately $9.2 trillion in U.S. debt is set to mature in 2025, representing nearly 30% of the U.S. GDP, alongside a projected federal deficit of $1.9 trillion [12]. Group 3: Future Projections for 2026 - Investment institutions expect the Fed to lower the federal funds rate target range to 3.0% to 3.5% in 2026, with potential for two to three additional rate cuts [14]. - Despite the Fed's easing policies, the outlook for long-term yields remains high due to increasing debt supply and fiscal deficits [14]. - The yield curve is anticipated to remain steep in 2026, benefiting fixed-income investors, particularly for bonds with maturities of 5 to 6 years [15].
【2025年债市回顾：低利率环境下的挑战与机遇】美联储从紧缩走向宽松 美债市场的去年、今年和明年
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-12-31 00:24