单月每吨上涨近千元！强预期下 棉花行情能走多远？

Core Viewpoint - The cotton futures market is experiencing a strong rally, with the main contract in Zhengzhou breaking through key resistance levels, showing a nearly 1,000 yuan per ton increase since December, significantly outperforming U.S. cotton and becoming a focal point in the commodity market [2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent price increase in Zheng cotton is driven by strong expectations of reduced cotton production in the new year, which has been gradually confirmed by recent developments [2] - The Xinjiang Cotton Association indicated that the cotton planting area in Xinjiang may face structural reductions in 2026, which is expected to influence the domestic cotton supply landscape long-term [2] - The current supply-demand balance in the cotton market is tight, with a notable decrease in import ratios and low carryover stocks, maintaining a robust long-term fundamental outlook [3] Group 2: Demand Factors - The resilience of demand in the cotton market is a significant driver of the current price trend, supported by retail sales data and operational rates of midstream textile enterprises [3] - In November, retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, and textiles reached 154.2 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.5%, indicating stable demand in the cotton textile industry [3] Group 3: Price Pressures and Market Sentiment - The market is characterized by a coexistence of strong expectations and weak realities, with rising cotton prices exceeding processing costs for ginning factories, leading to some hedging pressure [4] - The seasonal off-peak period is affecting downstream cotton yarn prices, which are struggling to keep pace with rising cotton prices, potentially impacting profit margins for yarn manufacturers [4] - The price disparity between Zheng cotton and U.S. cotton is widening, with U.S. cotton prices remaining stagnant due to a lack of sufficient drivers, although there are concerns about indirect impacts from imported cotton yarn on domestic consumption [4] Group 4: Future Outlook - The cotton import volume remains at historical lows, with a 67.5% year-on-year decrease expected for the 2024/2025 season, which is unlikely to alter the domestic supply structure significantly [5] - Short-term cotton futures are expected to maintain a strong oscillating trend, driven by a combination of strong expectations and realities, reducing the likelihood of a shift to bearish sentiment [5] - The cotton subsidy policy is increasingly favoring high-quality cotton, with expectations for adjustments in the target price subsidy policy in 2026, which could further support cotton prices [5] - Overall, short-term market optimism is likely to persist, with medium to long-term projections indicating potential upward price movement supported by supply reduction expectations and resilient demand [5]