三张反对票背后的美联储分歧

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's December policy meeting minutes indicate a divided opinion among officials regarding the necessity and timing of interest rate cuts, despite a decision to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points [2][3]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decision - The FOMC agreed to lower the policy interest rate to a range of 3.5% to 3.75% after a comprehensive assessment of the economic outlook and risk distribution [3]. - Six officials opposed the rate cut, including two voting members, primarily due to differing views on inflation progress [3]. - Supporters of the rate cut cited slowing job growth and rising unemployment as indicators of increased downside risks in the labor market, suggesting that a modest policy easing could mitigate further labor market weakening [3][4]. Group 2: Inflation Concerns - Some officials expressed caution regarding inflation, noting that progress towards the 2% inflation target has recently stalled, with inflation likely to remain relatively high in the short term [3][4]. - A suggestion was made to maintain the policy interest rate unchanged for a period following the rate cut, contingent on inflation trends [4]. Group 3: Future Rate Cuts and Economic Outlook - Officials anticipate the possibility of one rate cut in the upcoming year, but the decision will depend on new data regarding inflation and unemployment [5]. - The Fed has determined that bank reserves have shifted from "ample" to "adequate," prompting the initiation of short-term U.S. Treasury purchases to maintain smooth interest rate control [5]. - The Fed plans to start these operations with an initial purchase of approximately $40 billion, aiming to reduce liquidity volatility risks [5]. Group 4: Economic Growth and Inflation Projections - Participants expect economic growth to accelerate by 2026, with activities expanding close to potential output levels, supported by fiscal and regulatory policy changes [5]. - Short-term inflation is expected to remain elevated before gradually returning to the 2% target, with mixed views on the impact of tariffs on core goods inflation [6].