Ge Long Hui·2025-12-31 00:37Core Viewpoint - The report from China Galaxy Securities indicates that the logic for rising gold prices will continue due to factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, weakening dollar credit, and central bank gold purchases [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - On December 11, the Federal Reserve lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50%-3.75%, aligning with market expectations, and has cumulatively cut rates by 75 basis points this year [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's statements during the press conference were generally dovish, contributing to expectations of further rate cuts [1] - The rising expectations for Fed rate cuts and marginal liquidity easing are likely to support gold prices [1] Group 2: Economic and Market Context - Former President Trump has called for the next Federal Reserve chair to lower rates during economic upturns, criticizing the current market logic that "good news is bad for the stock market" [1] - Trump emphasized that lower rates benefit the stock market, economy, and housing affordability, suggesting that stock market gains could significantly boost GDP [1] - Fed Governor Michelle W. Milan warned that not continuing rate cuts next year could risk a recession, although the short-term probability of economic downturn remains low [1] Group 3: Global Economic Factors - The imposition of tariffs by the U.S. has led to trade disputes with multiple countries, ongoing geopolitical conflicts, and concerns over U.S. debt credit, which may drive global central banks and investors to increase their gold holdings [1] - The ongoing process of "de-Americanization" is expected to impact global order and the credit currency system, revealing a long-term logic for rising gold prices [1]