物产中大期货：铁矿石价格韧性十足

Core Viewpoint - Despite the global mining capacity entering an expansion cycle and China's port iron ore inventory reaching historical highs, iron ore futures prices remain resilient at high levels, indicating a divergence between long-term expectations and short-term realities [1] Inventory Levels - Although the total port iron ore inventory is at a historical high, the inventory structure is severely differentiated, leading to a "loose total, tight structure" scenario [2] - The differentiation in varieties exacerbates structural contradictions, with Brazilian ore inventory being high while Australian ore inventory is generally low, particularly for certain grades like PB powder, which is at a low level [2] - Steel mills are currently shifting towards purchasing lower-grade Australian ore due to profit fluctuations, which has led to a structural supply shortage and sustained increases in spot prices [2] - The low inventory levels at steel mills reinforce the demand for replenishment, providing solid short-term buying support for iron ore prices [2] Mining Profits - Iron ore, as a crucial industrial raw material, follows the logic of "demand determines direction, supply determines elasticity" [3] - China's iron ore demand remains strong, with cumulative pig iron production increasing by approximately 24.5 million tons year-on-year, leading to an estimated increase in iron ore demand of about 39.2 million tons [3] - The global iron ore supply is characterized by an oligopolistic structure, with four major mining companies controlling nearly half of the production and over 70% of the trade volume [3] - This asymmetric structure allows mining companies to maintain high profits even during industry downturns, contributing to the long-term price resilience of iron ore [3] Steel Mill Replenishment - The specific participant structure in the futures market further solidifies the strong price trend of iron ore, with foreign institutions holding significant long positions that influence market sentiment and price movements [4] - The persistent backwardation in iron ore futures creates an inherent attractiveness for long positions, providing stable support for prices [4] - Historical trends indicate that significant price declines in iron ore are typically driven by demand contractions rather than supply increases, which are often fully priced in by the market [4] Overall Market Dynamics - Supply growth is a long-term slow variable with limited short-term impact on iron ore prices; the main contradictions currently lie in demand and inventory structure [5] - In the short term, due to the current structural contradictions in inventory and the seasonal replenishment phase for steel mills, there is still potential for slight price increases [5] - However, as supply continues to increase and replenishment ends, along with the current low profitability of steel mills, iron ore may face downward pressure if production recovery in Q1 next year does not meet expectations [5] Future Focus - Two key variables to monitor are the changes in domestic steel mill production rhythms and the actual production and shipping progress of the West Mangdu project, which could be critical drivers in breaking the current price stalemate [6]