专访上海财经大学校长刘元春：2026年继续强化创新驱动布局，消费有望实现逆转

Economic Performance Overview - China's economy grew by 5.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, with an expected annual growth target of around 5% despite downward pressure in the fourth quarter [1] - Exports showed resilience with a 6.2% year-on-year increase from January to November 2025, while retail sales of consumer goods grew by 4% and service retail sales by 5.4% during the same period [1][8] - Fixed asset investment declined by 2.6% year-on-year, but high-tech industry investments maintained strong growth [1] 2026 Economic Strategy - The economic strategy for 2026 will focus on two main lines: short-term expansion of domestic demand and risk control, and long-term innovation-driven growth [2] - The goal for 2026 is to achieve an economic growth rate of around 5%, considering the cyclical factors still at the bottom [6][12] Consumption and Investment Outlook - Consumption recovery is expected to be slow due to cyclical adjustments and structural issues, with a need for a comprehensive approach to stimulate demand [8][9] - Policies to boost consumption will include increased fiscal measures and financial tools, alongside efforts to repair household balance sheets, particularly in first-tier cities [10] Structural Reforms and Fiscal Policy - Structural reforms will focus on breaking down barriers to a unified national market and enhancing the vitality of microeconomic entities [14] - A more proactive fiscal policy is anticipated for 2026, with a deficit rate maintained at around 4% and an emphasis on optimizing expenditure in key areas such as domestic demand and technological innovation [13]