张尧浠：回落调整空间有限、金银仍是逢低看涨为主

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price experienced fluctuations, initially rising and then retreating, indicating a potential bullish signal despite the recent pullback [1][3]. Market Performance - On the previous trading day, gold opened at $4,334.30 per ounce, reached a low of $4,323.49, and then climbed to a high of $4,404.18 before closing at $4,338.51, resulting in a daily range of $80.69 and a slight increase of $4.21, or 0.097% [1]. - The market was supported by buying interest amid escalating geopolitical tensions and a recovery from previous sell-offs, although resistance from moving averages and negative data releases from the U.S. pressured gold prices [3]. Future Outlook - For December 31, gold is expected to continue receiving support from buying interest, with the potential for a strong opening. The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes indicated significant division among officials, with most supporting further rate cuts, which may bolster gold prices [3]. - Key economic indicators, such as initial jobless claims, are anticipated to be favorable for gold, suggesting a likelihood of a volatile or upward trend in prices [5]. - Factors supporting gold prices in 2024 and 2025 include potential Fed rate cuts, geopolitical risks, central bank purchases, and ETF inflows, indicating a bullish outlook for gold into 2026 [5]. Technical Analysis - Monthly analysis shows that while gold prices have risen, there is a risk of a significant pullback, potentially revisiting the $4,000-$3,900 range. However, a strong performance in January could signal a continuation of the bullish trend towards $5,500-$6,000 [7]. - Weekly analysis indicates that gold has faced resistance and may continue to decline towards the 10-week moving average at $4,230, with further support around $4,000. Stability above $4,300 could maintain bullish momentum [9]. - Daily charts suggest that despite recent resistance, a bullish pattern remains intact as long as key support levels are not breached. Key support levels are identified at $4,320 and $4,275, with resistance at $4,390 and $4,430 [11].