中信证券:如何看待数字人民币2.0升级?
Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-12-31 01:16

Core Viewpoint - The digital renminbi is transitioning from a "central bank liability" cash model (1.0) to a "deposit currency" model (2.0) integrated into the commercial banking liability system, allowing for interest accrual and reserve requirements, effectively becoming a general deposit [1][2]. Group 1: Upgrade of Digital Renminbi - The core positioning of e-CNY has fundamentally changed from a cash-type model to a deposit currency model, integrating into the commercial banking liability system and allowing for interest payments and reserve requirements [2]. - This upgrade represents a global innovation in Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC), enhancing internationalization effects and serving as a model for other central banks, particularly in cross-border trade applications [2]. Group 2: Impact on Banking Stability and Monetary Policy - The transition to a deposit currency will strengthen the stability of bank liabilities by returning digital renminbi management to the banking system [3]. - It will enhance the efficiency of monetary policy transmission, as deposit-type digital renminbi can be included in reserve and interest rate frameworks, improving the flow of policy tools from central banks to commercial banks and then to the real economy [3]. - The new framework increases banks' motivation to promote digital renminbi, as it becomes a core liability for them, enhancing their promotional incentives [3]. Group 3: Strengthening Payment Business Advantages - Digital renminbi is expected to become a crucial tool for linking corporate and retail banking, enhancing customer loyalty through applications in corporate accounts and payment settlements [4]. - It will provide a competitive advantage over third-party platforms in payment processes, as it remains under the central bank's payment infrastructure, which has already achieved unconditional access to major internet platforms [4]. Group 4: Focus on Capability Building - The number of digital renminbi operating institutions is expected to increase, with a shift in competition from licensing to service capabilities [6]. - Digital renminbi will leverage new technology applications, requiring banks to enhance their system construction, product design, and specialized service teams, making service capability a key competitive factor [6]. Group 5: Development Outlook - There is significant room for growth in the domestic account openings and transaction amounts for digital renminbi, with only 230 million personal wallets and 18.84 million corporate wallets opened by November 2025, compared to over 15.395 billion total bank accounts [7]. - The internationalization of the renminbi is expected to drive increased usage of e-CNY, with substantial cross-border transaction volumes anticipated as banks promote its adoption [7].