镍 底部特征显现

Core Viewpoint - The nickel market is currently facing a supply expansion cycle, with production growth significantly outpacing demand, leading to concerns about supply contraction and rising costs, particularly influenced by policy changes in Indonesia [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Nickel prices have recently declined, reaching a new low since 2021 in late October, while other metals like copper and aluminum have seen price increases, indicating a divergence in the market [1]. - The overall nickel market is experiencing a significant increase in production, with domestic output expected to reach approximately 360,000 tons from January to November 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 19.34% [2]. - Global visible nickel inventories have surpassed 310,000 tons, with an increase of over 100,000 tons throughout the year, indicating high inventory levels [2]. Group 2: Cost and Pricing Pressure - Nickel prices have fallen below the cost of purchasing raw materials and some integrated processes, leading to a lack of strong cost support at current price levels [2]. - The lowest production costs in the industry continue to decline, anchoring market prices to these lower levels amid an oversupply situation [2]. Group 3: Policy Variables - Indonesia, the largest global supplier of nickel, has indicated potential significant changes in mining quotas and taxation that could impact future supply [3]. - The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) has reported a proposed reduction in the mining output target for 2026 to approximately 250 million tons, down from 379 million tons in 2025 [3]. - Proposed adjustments to pricing and tax rules in Indonesia could increase mining costs, as cobalt and other by-products may be treated as independent commodities subject to royalties [3]. - The market is highly sensitive to any potential supply contraction from Indonesia, which could lead to a rapid price rebound based on rising cost expectations [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The potential for further declines in nickel prices appears limited, with a preliminary establishment of a phase bottom, heavily reliant on the final outcomes of Indonesia's mining quota approvals and tax policy implementations [4].