Core Viewpoint - The report from Guosheng Securities indicates that J&T Express (01519) is expected to experience significant business growth driven by e-commerce dividends in Southeast Asia and new markets, alongside improved profitability in China. The firm forecasts adjusted net profits for J&T Express to reach $3.71 billion, $5.71 billion, and $7.64 billion for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth of 85.2%, 54.0%, and 33.8% respectively, with corresponding adjusted EPS of $0.040, $0.061, and $0.083 per share. Given the high growth potential in Southeast Asia and Latin America, the company is assigned a target P/E of 27x for 2026, leading to a reasonable valuation of HKD 12.90 and a "Buy" rating [1]. Group 1 - J&T Express is a global express delivery company that originated in Southeast Asia and has successfully expanded into China and Latin America, with a delivery network covering 13 countries. The core investment logic is based on the simultaneous benefits from the rise of e-commerce and social media platforms in Southeast Asia, profitability recovery in China due to "anti-involution," and explosive growth in new market e-commerce [2]. Group 2 - Southeast Asia serves as the company's foundational market and profit "ballast," maintaining the industry's leading market share. In 2025, the company capitalized on the explosive growth of TikTok Shop in Southeast Asia, increasing its market share to 32.8% (H1 2025). The package volume in Southeast Asia is expected to grow by 65% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, with adjusted EBIT increasing by 74% in the first half of 2025. The market is anticipated to sustain high growth rates over the next five years, contributing significantly to profit increments [3]. Group 3 - The Chinese market accounts for approximately 75% of the company's package volume. The advanced and mature express delivery technology and experience developed in China are being systematically applied to Southeast Asia and new markets, helping to reduce costs and enhance competitiveness. With the ongoing "anti-involution" in the Chinese express delivery industry and price increases in various regions, the revenue per package is showing a notable recovery, leading to improved profitability in the Chinese segment [4]. Group 4 - The new markets in Latin America and the Middle East have a higher GDP and per capita income than Southeast Asia, but lower e-commerce penetration, indicating significant growth potential. The e-commerce market is expected to accelerate in 2025. Leveraging its mature regional agency model and global network capabilities, the company has partnered with leading platforms like Mercado Libre and TikTok Shop to steadily increase its market share in these fragmented markets. In the first three quarters of 2025, package volume in new markets grew by 31%, and for the first half of 2025, the new markets achieved positive adjusted EBITDA for the first time, indicating operational stabilization. With rapid growth in business volume leading to economies of scale, the company is expected to achieve adjusted EBIT breakeven in 2025, making new markets a crucial growth engine in the medium to long term [5].