TMGM：日本央行连续加息伴随美元/日元高位运行

Group 1 - The core issue in the market is the policy divergence between the Bank of Japan (BOJ) and the Federal Reserve, which drives exchange rate fluctuations [2][3] - The BOJ raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.75%, marking its third hike of the year, yet the yen remains weak, with USD/JPY rising nearly 12% from its April low of 139.89 [2] - The Federal Reserve shows a cautious dovish stance, with most policymakers expecting further rate cuts contingent on declining inflation indicators, leading to uncertainty in policy direction [2][3] Group 2 - Despite the BOJ's rate hikes, the market may have already priced in these expectations, making it difficult for the yen to strengthen significantly [3] - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. inflation data complicates the Fed's policy decisions, resulting in a lack of clear guidance for the market [2][3] - The USD/JPY is likely to remain within a sensitive range in the short term, with attention needed on potential BOJ market interventions and U.S. inflation data for future policy direction [3]