美联储会议纪要：多数决策者支持明年在通胀下降的前提下继续降息

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's December meeting minutes reveal significant divisions among policymakers regarding whether inflation or unemployment poses a greater risk to the U.S. economy [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy Decisions - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range to 3.50%-3.75% during its third rate cut of the year, with only 3 out of 12 policymakers voting against the decision [1] - Chairman Powell indicated that the current rate is sufficient to prevent severe deterioration in the labor market while still applying pressure on inflation [1] - Most officials believe that the risks to the labor market are skewed to the downside, while inflation risks are viewed as skewed to the upside [1] Group 2: Future Rate Expectations - The dot plot indicates that policymakers still expect one rate cut next year, with inflation projected to slow to around 2.4% by the end of the year [1] - According to CME's "FedWatch," the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in January is 14.9%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 85.1% [3] - By March, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut rises to 45.2%, with a 48.3% chance of no change and a 6.5% chance of a 50 basis point cut [3] Group 3: Leadership Changes - President Trump is expected to announce his choice for the next Federal Reserve Chair in January, with former Fed Governor Warsh and NEC Director Hassett as top candidates [3] - Warsh advocates for maintaining the Fed's policy independence and supports reforms such as balance sheet reduction and deeper rate cuts [4] - Hassett favors monetary easing to stimulate growth and is inclined towards aggressive rate cuts if appointed [4]