惊魂24小时！国际金价单日狂泻200美元，机构坚称牛市未改｜大宗风云

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in international gold and silver prices have been significant, with silver futures first surpassing $80 per ounce before plummeting by 10% to $70 per ounce on December 29, while gold prices fell over 4% to a low of $4321 per ounce, before rebounding on December 30 [2][3]. Group 1: Price Movements - On December 29, silver futures experienced a dramatic drop after reaching a historical high, attributed to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) raising margin requirements, leading to concentrated long position liquidations and a reversal in market sentiment [2][3]. - Gold prices fell by $211 per ounce, a decline of 4.64%, while silver prices also saw significant volatility due to the margin increase [3]. - By December 30, gold prices recovered to $4400 per ounce and silver prices rose to $76 per ounce [2]. Group 2: Margin Requirements - CME announced a second increase in silver futures margin requirements within two weeks, raising the initial margin from $20,000 to approximately $25,000, effective December 29 [3][4]. - The margin increase was aimed at controlling the high-risk positions accumulated during the recent price surge, which led to a rapid market correction [3][4]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange also implemented measures to increase trading costs and limit trading volumes in response to the volatile market conditions [5]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Risks - Analysts noted that the current market sentiment is characterized by crowded long positions, with many viewing silver as being in an "overbought" state, which could lead to increased price volatility [6]. - Historical comparisons were made to past market events, indicating that while the current market is driven by supply-demand fundamentals and financial attributes, the potential for significant price corrections remains [7][8]. - Short-term risks include tax-related selling pressures as the year-end approaches, which may lead to concentrated profit-taking in early January [9]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Despite recent volatility, the long-term outlook for silver remains positive, with potential price targets suggesting a challenge of $90 per ounce if global monetary easing continues and supply-demand gaps persist [10]. - Analysts recommend caution in trading silver due to its inherent volatility, advising investors to consider market conditions and manage leverage carefully [10].