Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-12-31 02:29Group 1 - The capital expenditure growth rate in the refining industry is gradually slowing, with some companies nearing the end of their capital spending, and dividends are expected to remain at a high level, indicating significant potential for an increase in dividend yield as performance improves [1][2] - Oil prices have returned to a neutral range, leading to improved cost expectations for refining companies, and the competitive landscape for leading enterprises is expected to benefit from factors such as stricter domestic consumption tax and declining operating rates of local refineries [1][2] Group 2 - The refining industry is experiencing a shift in focus from scale efficiency to low-carbon and renewable sectors, driven by ESG requirements and declining refining capacity in Western countries due to aging facilities and rising maintenance costs [3] - Domestic refining capacity is approaching a ceiling of 1 billion tons, and the industry is facing a reshuffle due to stricter tax policies and narrowing price differentials for risk oil types, which will favor leading enterprises [4] - The demand for refined oil is expected to decline, accelerating the transition from oil to chemicals, while the supply of olefins is slowing down, indicating potential for profit recovery in the olefin sector [4][5]