Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-12-31 02:28Core Viewpoint - Macquarie's report indicates that MGM China (02282) will increase its brand licensing fee from 1.75% to 3% of gross revenue starting January 2026, with a maximum term of 20 years [1] Group 1: Financial Adjustments - The target price for MGM China has been reduced by 7%, from HKD 22.6 to HKD 21, while maintaining an "outperform" rating [1] - The dividend payout ratio has been raised from 35% to at least 50%, leading to an expected dividend yield of 5.4% in 2026 under the 50% assumption [1] Group 2: Risk Mitigation - Despite the significant increase in licensing fees, the long-term agreement is expected to mitigate the risk of further increases in licensing fees over the next 20 years [1] - The stock price has decreased by 17%, presenting a favorable entry point for investors [1] Group 3: EBITDA Projections - The estimated EBITDA for MGM China has been adjusted downwards by 5.1% and 4.8% for the years 2026 and 2027, respectively, due to the anticipated increase in licensing fees [1]