Core Insights - The infant formula market is experiencing a temporary calm after a recovery driven by an increase in birth rates, but there are concerns about declining birth rates and a potential new round of competition in 2025 [1][6] Group 1: Market Recovery and Trends - The market has shown signs of recovery with a 5% decrease in sales compared to pre-pandemic levels, attributed to a rise in birth rates during the Year of the Dragon [3][4] - Major brands are adopting stricter channel control measures, such as using internal codes and electronic fences to manage inventory and prevent price wars [4][5] - Sales of infant formula have seen a 24% increase year-on-year for major companies, with specific segments like infant formula growing by 33.3% [5] Group 2: Future Competition and Adjustments - Concerns about the sustainability of the market recovery are rising, with sales figures showing a decline in the latter half of the year [6][7] - Over 40 brands have updated their formulas this year, focusing on functional enhancements to prepare for intensified competition in 2026 [7] - The industry is witnessing a rapid consolidation of maternal and infant channels, with major chains expanding nationally and regional alliances absorbing smaller chains to increase market concentration [8] Group 3: Channel Dynamics - The consolidation of channels is aimed at improving supply chain efficiency and gaining leverage in negotiations with brands [8] - There is a noticeable trend of larger chains acquiring smaller ones, leading to a "big fish eats small fish" scenario in the market [8] - The competition between brands and channel alliances is intensifying, as both seek to maximize profits while managing the trade-offs of customized products [8]
年终盘点｜2025年的奶粉行业：平静之下，暗战已起