证券研究报告 | 策略定期报告 招商研究一周回顾 （0704-0711） 招商研发宏观组与策略组重要观点回顾摘要： 宏观组。 1、对宏观政策而言，反内卷政策与传统的财政、货币政策还是有较大区别，也就 是说下半年的宏观政策手段可能是一些非传统的措施。但是只要能看到价格形势 的边际转变，同样也会对资产价格造成影响。那么大致的方向应该是：权益产品 的基本面将逐步改善，价格水平将从市场收益率的下行动力转变为上行压力。短 期内，顺周期商品价格可能延续底部回升的走势。 2、特朗普签署"大而美"法案。特朗普对政府及共和党控制力稳固并加强，其地位 在 6 月以来的一系列"成功"后得到巩固。司法方面，特朗普获得美国最高法院对 总统行政权力的支持。一方面特朗普为后续施政扫除了障碍，将更坚定其当前路 线，整体政策倾向不会发生大的变化（即核心关注国内移民、经济议题，对外方 面关注关税贸易议题、大国关系再平衡）；另一方面，需要警惕特朗普在政治上 的自信进一步加强，或有可能导致其在关税贸易等对外议题上不太容易妥协。 策略组。 1、从中期的趋势来看，"反内卷"是推动指数走牛的关键力量，"反内卷"驱动上市 公司削减资产开支，出清过剩产能，经 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve on companies like H&H International Holdings (健合集团), highlighting the company's strategic debt management and growth opportunities in the health and pet nutrition sectors amid changing economic conditions [3][4][5]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Interest Rate Cuts - President Trump has publicly pressured the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, aiming for a target of 1.75% compared to the current range of 4.25% to 4.50% [3]. - Goldman Sachs predicts that the Federal Reserve may begin cutting rates in September 2024, citing lower-than-expected inflation effects from tariffs and a weakening labor market [3][4]. Group 2: H&H International Holdings' Financial Strategy - H&H International Holdings has a significant short-term debt of over 4.7 billion RMB, which has increased by 378% year-on-year, making financing a critical task for the company [4][5]. - The company successfully completed a $150 million offshore RMB syndicate financing in Q3 2024, optimizing its debt structure amid the Fed's rate cuts [5][6]. - By the end of 2024, H&H expects to maintain a healthy cash balance of approximately 1.83 billion RMB and a net debt ratio of 3.4 times [6][7]. Group 3: Market Position and Growth Opportunities - H&H's current price-to-book ratio is around 1, indicating it may be undervalued compared to peers in the health sector, which typically have ratios between 2 to 6 [8]. - The company is focusing on expanding its adult nutrition and pet nutrition product lines, with Zesty Paws being a key growth driver in the North American market [8][9]. - H&H plans to leverage its multi-channel strategy and product innovation to enhance Zesty Paws' market position and explore expansion opportunities in the UK, Europe, Asia, and Australia [9].

Group 1 - The infant formula market is experiencing a recovery in the first half of 2025, with several companies reporting positive earnings forecasts, indicating sustained growth [1][2] - Child King (301078.SZ) expects a net profit of 120 million to 160 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 50% to 100%, driven by steady growth in self-operated business and the expansion of its franchise model in lower-tier markets [2] - Health and Happiness Group (01112.HK) reported single-digit revenue growth, with a strong performance in the ultra-premium infant formula segment, increasing its market share from 13% to 15.8% [2] Group 2 - According to Nielsen IQ data, the total sales of infant formula maintained growth for three out of five months leading up to May 25, 2025, with strong sales in the first and second stages of formula [3] - After four years of decline, the domestic birth rate increased to 9.54 million in 2024, contributing to the recovery of the infant formula market, although there are concerns about a potential slight decline in birth rates in 2025 [6] Group 3 - A subsidy war initiated in April 2025 has intensified competition in the infant formula market, with several companies, including China Feihe (06186.HK) and Yili (600887.SH), launching substantial subsidy programs [7][8] - The subsidy strategy primarily involves offering free formula, leading to consumer behavior where multiple brands' products are exchanged among consumers, complicating sales for companies [7][8] - China Feihe issued a profit warning, expecting revenue between 9.1 billion and 9.3 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, down from 10.1 billion yuan in the same period of 2024, attributing the decline to the subsidy program [8]

Group 1 - The "Second China Health Promotion Conference" was held in Shanghai, focusing on the "National Nutrition Literacy Improvement Plan" to enhance public nutrition health literacy [1][2] - Ganen Group's high-end infant nutrition brand, Ganen, and children's nutrition brand Little Swisse were recognized as excellent units in the children's nutrition literacy improvement initiative [1][2] - The conference featured a strategic cooperation ceremony for the "Children's Nutrition Literacy Improvement Action 2025," highlighting the importance of children's nutrition in national population quality development [2][3] Group 2 - Ganen actively supports the "National Nutrition Literacy Improvement Plan" by collaborating with the China Health Promotion and Education Association to enhance children's nutrition literacy [2][4] - The initiative involves over a hundred maternal and infant chain institutions and includes the launch of a "Children's Precision Nutrition Guide" certification program [2][4] - The "0-6 Years Children's Precision Nutrition Guide" was published to provide scientific and precise nutritional guidance for children aged 0-6 [4][5] Group 3 - Ganen has established a comprehensive nutrition education system based on the guide, including various public awareness campaigns and events [5][6] - The company aims to strengthen the influence of the "0-6 Years Children's Precision Nutrition" initiative and the guide through a multi-level nutrition health education system [6] - Future efforts will focus on optimizing products and creating diverse nutritional combinations to meet the refined parenting needs of the new generation of parents [6]

Market Overview - The US 90-day exemption period is ending this week, leading to ongoing market focus on US tariff negotiations [1] - The Hang Seng Index closed down 0.12% at 23,887.83 points, with a total turnover of HKD 193.79 billion [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 0.25% to 5,229.56 points, indicating mixed performance across indices [1] Blue Chip Performance - Sands China (01928) led blue-chip stocks, rising 3.85% to HKD 18.32, contributing 2.58 points to the Hang Seng Index [2] - Macau's June gaming revenue increased by 19% year-on-year to MOP 21.1 billion, exceeding market expectations [2] - Other notable blue-chip movements included China Resources Land (01109) up 3.45% and Ideal Automotive (02015) up 2.8% [2] Sector Highlights Stablecoin Sector - The stablecoin concept is gaining traction, with companies like Guotai Junan International (01788) rising 10.77% [3] - The Hong Kong Stablecoin Regulation is set to take effect on August 1, with limited licenses expected to be issued [3] Beverage Sector - Tea beverage stocks surged, with Cha Bai Dao (02555) up 11.04% amid a competitive delivery market [4] - The delivery battle between Alibaba and Meituan has significantly boosted tea beverage consumption [4] Real Estate Sector - The housing market is under scrutiny, with a focus on stabilizing expectations and activating demand [5] - Analysts suggest that the third quarter will be crucial for policy direction affecting the real estate market [5] Gaming Sector - Gaming stocks continued to rise, with MGM China (02282) up 2.38% and overall positive sentiment in the Macau gaming market [6] - Morgan Stanley forecasts a 10% year-on-year increase in Macau's July gaming revenue [6] Power Sector - Power stocks saw a general increase, driven by record electricity demand due to high temperatures [7] - The maximum national electricity load reached 14.65 billion kilowatts, marking a significant year-on-year increase [7] Gold Sector - Gold stocks faced pressure, with Shandong Gold (01787) down 5.96% as gold prices fell below USD 3,310 per ounce [7] - The decline in gold prices is attributed to reduced expectations for US interest rate cuts [7] Notable Stock Movements - H&H International Holdings (01112) issued a profit warning, falling 7.14% [8] - Jihong Co. (02603) saw a significant rise of 11.62%, with projected net profit growth of 97.25% to 108.21% for the first half of 2025 [9] - Lao Pu Gold (06181) reached a new high, reflecting strong growth potential compared to industry peers [10] - FWD Group (01828) debuted on the market, closing up 1.05% with a net fundraising of approximately HKD 29.53 billion [11]

在健康中国战略引导下，提升国民营养素养，已成为公共卫生事业的重要任务。其中，孕婴童群体的营 养健康素养，不仅关乎个体健康成长，更是筑牢全民健康的重要基石。为此，《国民营养计划(2017- 2030年)》明确提出：到2030年，居民营养健康知识知晓率需在2020年基础上提升10%，并将"生命早期 1000天营养健康行动"列为首要任务。 为响应国家健康号召，助力孕婴童群体营养素养水平的提升，7月4日，在中国健康促进与教育协会营养 素养分会的指导下，健合集团旗下高端婴幼儿营养与健康品牌合生元重磅启动"孕婴童营养素养提升行 动"。 随后，健合集团首席执行官李凤婷，健合集团BNC中国区执行总裁彭家华，健合集团中国区财务高级 总监梁小玲，健合集团中国区销售管理总监刘佳，健合集团中国区科学交流与产品培训总监刘威，健合 集团BNC重点客户总监匡微，健合集团BNC市场策略及营销总监叶鹏，健合集团BNC西部大区总监吴 佳纯以及健合集团BNC华北大区总监潘家源共同参与启动仪式并宣告"孕婴童营养素养提升行动"正式启 动。随着"孕婴童营养素养提升行动"的开启，合生元将聚焦"生命早期1000天"及儿童成长关键期，开展 贯穿全年的系列科普 ...

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index fell by 0.45%, down 107 points, closing at 23,808 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index decreased by 0.15% [1] - Early trading volume in Hong Kong stocks reached HKD 109.5 billion [1] Stablecoin Regulation - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority plans to release guidelines for stablecoin regulations this month, aiming to issue licenses within the year [1] - Stocks related to stablecoins saw significant gains, with Guotai Junan International rising by 8.2%, ZhongAn Online increasing by 5.64%, and Yike rising over 9% [1] New Tea Beverage Market - A subsidy war in the takeaway market has ignited the new tea beverage sector, with Guming and Cha Baidao both rising over 9% [1] Digital Health Services - Health Road saw its stock rise over 9% as its controlling shareholder voluntarily extended the lock-up period, focusing on a digital health service platform [1] Gaming Industry - Morgan Stanley reported that Macau's gaming revenue in June increased by 19% year-on-year to MOP 21.1 billion, exceeding analyst predictions by 9% [1] - Gaming stocks continued their upward trend, with Amax Holdings up 3.7%, Melco International Development up 1.6%, and MGM China up 2.1% [1] Medical Device Sector - In response to China's reciprocal restrictions on EU medical devices, the National Medical Products Administration issued support for high-end medical devices [1] - Medical device stocks experienced broad gains, with Spring Medical up 1.86%, Yongsheng Medical up 7.27%, and Xinwei Medical-B up 5.5% [1] Company Developments - China Rare Earth Holdings plans to spin off its gold business for independent listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, potentially seeking financing before the spin-off [2] - Jihong Co. saw its stock rise over 10%, with a projected over 55% year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of the year [3] - H&H International Holdings is expected to see a decline in net profit by 45% to 65% for the first half of the year, resulting in a drop of over 6% in its stock price [4]

Market Overview - The US stock market was closed on July 4th for Independence Day [1] Hong Kong Stock Market Highlights - Yum China (09987) rose over 3% after announcing the establishment of an innovation fund to convert operational needs into practical applications [2] - H&H International Holdings (01112) fell over 7%, expecting a 45% to 65% decline in net profit for the first half of the year [2] - China Rare Earth Holdings (03788) surged nearly 9% as it plans to spin off its gold business for independent listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, potentially seeking financing before the spin-off [2] - Health Road (02587) jumped over 18% as its controlling shareholder voluntarily extended the lock-up period, focusing on digital health services [2] - Smoore International (06969) increased over 5% with the launch of Glo Hilo in Japan, maintaining high profit margins [2] - Tencent Music (01698) rose nearly 3% as institutions noted that recent acquisition plans would enhance overall content supply [2] - Jihong Co., Ltd. (02603) surged over 7%, with a projected net profit increase of over 55% year-on-year for the first half [2] - Solar stocks collectively declined, with Xinyi Solar (00968) down 4.86%, Fuyao Glass (06865) down 3.88%, New Energy (01799) down 3.19%, and Xinyi Glass (00868) down 2.64% [2] Other Notable Movements - Kuaishou-W (01024) rose over 3% as it plans to launch a live streaming initiative across multiple cities to create a collaborative ecosystem [3] - Gold stocks faced pressure, with Shandong Gold (01787) down 5.09%, China Gold International (02099) down 3.44%, Lingbao Gold (03330) down 2.68%, and Chifeng Jilong Gold (06693) down 2.33% [3] - China Shipbuilding Defense (00317) increased over 3% after the approval of a merger and acquisition restructuring plan, optimizing resources in the shipbuilding industry [3] - Medical device stocks saw a broad increase, with Spring Medical (01858) up 6.36%, Yongsheng Medical (01612) up 7.27%, Xinwei Medical-B (06609) up 3.55%, and Microneuroscience (02172) up 1.12% [3] - Some stablecoin concept stocks rose, with Victory Securities (08540) up 6.9%, Guotai Junan International (01788) up 5.15%, Yika (09923) up 2.59%, and China Everbright Holdings (00165) up 1.96% [3] - SF Express City (09699) rose nearly 7% amid intensified competition in the food delivery sector, with expectations of increased order volume [3] - HSSP International (03626) fell over 20% after being named by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission for high stock concentration [3] Strategic Partnerships and New Listings - Shengye (06069) opened nearly 15% higher after forming a strategic partnership with Stand Robot to enhance its robotics industry chain [4] - Beverage stocks opened high, with Cha Bai Dao (02555) up 15%, Nayuki's Tea (02150) up 9.87%, Gu Ming (01364) up 5.77%, Hu Shang Ayi (02589) up 2.99%, and Mixue Group (02097) up 2.92% [4] - FWD Group (01828) had a flat opening on its first day of listing, being a life insurance company under Li Zeqiang's control [4]

Core Insights - The article discusses recent developments in the nutrition and health industry, highlighting regulatory changes, new product approvals, and market trends that could impact investment opportunities [2][3][4][5][6]. Regulatory Developments - The State Administration for Market Regulation issued a guideline clarifying the definition of commercial advertising under the Advertising Law, addressing ongoing disputes in advertising enforcement [2]. - The National Health Commission approved D-alloheptulose and four other substances as new food raw materials, indicating a push for innovation in the nutrition sector [3]. - The market regulator released multiple responses to proposals regarding health food regulations, signaling a focus on traditional Chinese medicine formulations as a potential growth area [4]. Market Trends and Investment Opportunities - Yangtuo Technology Inc. submitted an IPO application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to raise funds for market expansion and supply chain optimization, reflecting growing investor interest in the nutrition and health sector [5]. - A report on 68 nutrition and health companies showed an average market value increase of 20% in the first half of the year, driven by rising consumer health awareness and demand for nutritional products [6]. Company Performance - New Hope Liuhe (002001) projected a net profit of 3.3 billion to 3.75 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 50% to 70% [12]. - Brother Technology (002562) expects a net profit of 60 million to 75 million yuan for the same period, marking an increase of 325% to 431% compared to the previous year [13]. New Product Launches - Guangji Pharmaceutical (000952) received a notice of administrative penalty for information disclosure violations, indicating regulatory scrutiny in the sector [14]. - TCM brand Tongrentang launched its first OTC glucosamine product, expanding its product line in the bone and joint health category [14].

Core Insights - H&H International Holdings reported a mid-single-digit revenue growth for the six months ending June 30, 2025, driven by growth across all business segments, including adult nutrition and care products, infant nutrition and care products, and pet nutrition and care products [1] Group 1: Adult Nutrition and Care Products - The adult nutrition and care products segment experienced a mid-single-digit revenue increase, primarily due to double-digit growth in mainland China and strong performance in other expanding markets [1] - The growth in this segment is attributed to rising consumer demand for beauty, anti-aging, and detox products, as well as the success of innovative product lines such as Swisse Plus+, Little Swisse, Smart Melts, and Swisse Magnesium Glycinate [1] - Swisse maintains a leading position in the overall vitamin, herbal, and mineral supplement market in mainland China, benefiting from its strong e-commerce presence [1] Group 2: Infant Nutrition and Care Products - The infant nutrition and care products segment saw a return to growth with a low single-digit year-on-year increase, driven by high single-digit growth in infant formula sales [2] - The strategy to attract new consumers, particularly through e-commerce and specialty infant stores, has helped expand market share, with Biostime's ultra-premium infant formula market share increasing from 13.0% to 15.8% [2] - During the 618 online shopping festival, the sales volume of the first and second stages of infant formula recorded a 103% increase [2] - However, the infant probiotics and nutritional supplements segment experienced a double-digit year-on-year decline due to reduced foot traffic in pharmacy channels and industry-wide challenges, although online sales in mainland China still showed low single-digit growth [2] Group 3: Pet Nutrition and Care Products - The pet nutrition and care products segment recorded a high single-digit revenue growth compared to the same period last year, benefiting from the increasing trend of premiumization in pet nutrition, pet humanization, and a rising number of pets [3] - The high-margin pet supplements segment continues to achieve steady revenue growth in the low to mid-double digits [3]