2025年11月银行间外汇市场运行报告

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint The foreign exchange market in November 2025 experienced a decline in overall trading volume, with the average daily trading volume decreasing month-on-month. The US dollar index fluctuated and depreciated, while the Chinese yuan continued to appreciate, reaching a new high for the year. The market shifted from a net buying to a net selling position, and the volatility of options decreased, indicating short-term appreciation pressure on the yuan. Group 1: Foreign Exchange Market Activity - The average daily trading volume in the interbank foreign exchange market was $191.46 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 2.57% and a month-on-month decrease of 6.69% [2] - The average daily trading volume for the yuan was $146.23 billion, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 5.11% [2] - The foreign currency market showed significant increases in trading activity, while the foreign currency interest rate market saw a decline of over 20% due to external holiday impacts [2] Group 2: Currency Exchange Rates - The US dollar index fluctuated and depreciated, closing at 99.45, down 0.35% from the previous month [3] - The yuan to US dollar exchange rate appreciated, breaking through the 7.12 to 7.08 levels, with the onshore yuan closing at 7.0794, appreciating 0.48% from the previous month [4] - The CFETS index for the yuan against a basket of currencies rose to 97.92, an increase of 0.32% [4] Group 3: Market Positioning and Sentiment - The domestic foreign exchange differential shifted from negative to positive, with an average daily differential of 10.50 basis points by month-end [5] - The average daily net buying of foreign exchange decreased to $7.86 billion, down $3.94 billion from October [5] - The market's herd effect index was 60.77, a decrease of 1.12 points from October, below the historical average of 62.62 [5] Group 4: Options and Volatility - The average daily trading volume of yuan foreign exchange options was $5.44 billion, a month-on-month increase of 3.93% [6] - The implied volatility for the yuan against the US dollar showed a downward trend, with the 1-month ATM implied volatility dropping to 1.68% before rebounding to 2.1% [6] - The 1-year ATM implied volatility decreased from 3.6% to 3.4%, indicating a general decline in market expectations for yuan appreciation [6] Group 5: Interest Rates and Swap Points - The domestic and foreign interest rate differentials remained negative, with the 10-year US Treasury yield fluctuating around 4.0% [7][9] - The 1-year swap points decreased by 9 basis points to -1296 basis points, reflecting a slight downward trend in market pressure [8] - The offshore swap points continued to rise, but the spread between onshore and offshore 1-year swap points narrowed to around 50 basis points, the lowest in three months [8]