Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Jin Tou Wang·2025-12-31 06:02News Summary Core Viewpoint - The steel market is experiencing fluctuations due to production adjustments and seasonal demand changes, with potential impacts on pricing and inventory levels [1][2]. Group 1: Production and Supply - Shanxi Jianlong's 850mm hot-rolled steel line has begun maintenance on December 29, with a planned downtime of 36 days, expected to reduce daily hot-rolled steel output by 0.5 million tons [1]. - The hot-rolled steel inventory has significantly decreased, primarily due to production cuts, although there are concerns that demand may decline more sharply than production reductions [2]. Group 2: Market Prices - On December 31, the market price for hot-rolled coils in Tangshan dropped by 10, with mainstream prices for 4.75-11.751500C hot coils ranging from 3170 to 3190, and manganese coils priced between 3290 and 3310 [1]. Group 3: Futures Market - As of December 30, the top 20 futures companies held a total of 1.1351 million long positions and 1.0915 million short positions in hot-rolled futures, resulting in a long-to-short ratio of 1.04, with a net position decrease of 0.0436 million contracts compared to the previous day [1]. Group 4: Analyst Insights - Nanhua Futures notes that while hot-rolled steel consumption has improved month-on-month, export controls may affect the sustainability of demand, and seasonal slowdowns are impacting end-user demand [2]. - Zhengxin Futures indicates that while policy expectations are supporting the market, the recovery in blast furnace capacity utilization and seasonal demand slowdown are weakening the supply-demand structure, suggesting that prices may have room for adjustment [2].