中邮证券：维持优然牧业(09858)“买入”评级 公司利润有望加速释放

Core Viewpoint - The report from Zhongyou Securities indicates that Youran Dairy (09858) is expected to benefit from the ongoing reduction in dairy cow inventory and a significant increase in beef prices, which will likely enhance the profitability from culling cows. Additionally, the dairy industry's investment in deep processing capacity is effectively adjusting market supply, potentially accelerating the recovery of raw milk prices by 2026. The rating is maintained as "Buy" [1]. Group 1: Dairy Cow Inventory and Raw Milk Price Recovery - The reduction in dairy cow inventory is deepening and accelerating, with a total decrease of 540,000 heads (8.1%) over the past 20 months since reaching a peak in February 2024. The monthly culling rate has recently increased [2]. - Adverse weather conditions in the third quarter have hindered the storage of silage feed, leading to shortages and forcing many farms to reduce their herd sizes. This process is optimizing the industry’s herd structure and alleviating previous supply excess, laying the groundwork for stabilizing fresh milk prices [2]. - The dairy processing industry is increasing deep processing capacity to consume raw milk, with products like cheese and milk powder significantly outpacing liquid milk in raw milk consumption, becoming a key factor in balancing market supply [2]. Group 2: Beef Price Reversal and Profitability from Culling - The average wholesale price of beef in China increased from 57 yuan/kg in February to 66 yuan/kg in December, marking a rise of 15.79%. This price increase is expected to enhance the profitability from culling cows, as the price of culled cows is linked to market beef prices [3]. - The report anticipates that as beef prices continue to rise, the profitability from culling cows will further increase, contributing positively to the company's financial performance [3]. Group 3: Profit Increment Estimation - The report estimates that approximately 28% of low-yield or older cows will be culled annually, with a projected increase in dairy cow inventory by an average of 4% from 2026 to 2027. The estimated culling volumes for mother cows are 30,900 tons, 32,000 tons, and 33,200 tons for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [4]. - The projected culling prices for mother cows in 2024 are estimated at 15.5 yuan/kg, with expected increases of 10%, 25%, and 35% in the following years. This is expected to generate profit increments of 127 million, 213 million, and 378 million yuan from culling activities in 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [4]. Group 4: Revenue and Profit Forecast - The dairy cow inventory is expected to fall below 6 million heads by 2025 and further decrease to around 5.8 million heads in 2026, completing the capacity reduction. The raw milk price is anticipated to stabilize in 2025 and recover in 2026 [5]. - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 20.805 billion, 21.722 billion, and 22.982 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.53%, 4.41%, and 5.80%, respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 512 million, 1.678 billion, and 2.856 billion yuan, with significant growth rates of 174.12%, 227.65%, and 70.19% [5].