基建住房双驱动，印度水泥行业迎来扩张“黄金期”？

Core Viewpoint - The Indian cement industry is expected to maintain stable growth in the next two fiscal years (FY2026 and FY2027), driven by strong demand from housing and infrastructure projects, with a projected sales growth of 6-7% in FY2027, following an estimated growth of 6.5-7.5% in FY2026 [1] Demand and Growth Drivers - Cement demand recorded a robust growth of 8.5% in the first eight months of FY2026, with expectations of increased construction activity post-monsoon, further boosting demand in the second half of the year [3] - Continued government focus on infrastructure spending and potential reductions in the Goods and Services Tax on cement are anticipated to provide critical support for industry demand [3] Capacity Expansion and Competitive Landscape - Major cement companies are actively pursuing large-scale capacity expansions in response to healthy demand prospects, with an estimated addition of 43-45 million tons of annual capacity in FY2026 and another 42-44 million tons in FY2027, totaling nearly 90 million tons over two years [4] - Recent mergers and acquisitions, such as Adani Group's acquisition of Penna Cement and Orient Cement, are intensifying market consolidation and strengthening the regional and national advantages of large enterprises [4] Profitability Outlook - Benefiting from favorable pricing and higher sales volumes, the industry’s operating profitability (measured as EBITDA per ton) is expected to significantly increase to ₹900-950 per ton in FY2026 [5] - However, due to anticipated rises in key input costs (such as petcoke and freight), profitability may moderate to ₹880-900 per ton in FY2027, although cement prices are still expected to grow by 2-4% in FY2027, supporting overall industry profits [5]