回望2025|存款市场变局：全面降息下的“存款搬家”

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector is experiencing a significant shift as deposit rates decline, leading to a "deposit migration" where residents are moving their funds from traditional deposits to diversified assets like wealth management products, insurance, and gold. This trend is expected to continue into 2026, with further adjustments in the deposit market anticipated [1][7]. Group 1: Interest Rate Changes - In 2025, the personal deposit and wealth management markets showed a clear structural differentiation, with long-term fixed deposit rates generally falling into the "1" range, and high-interest products like large-denomination certificates of deposit being withdrawn [2]. - Major state-owned banks initiated a round of interest rate cuts on May 20, 2025, reducing the interest rate on demand deposits by 5 basis points to 0.05%, and cutting rates on short-term fixed deposits by 15 basis points [2]. - Smaller banks have been more aggressive in their rate cuts, with some reducing three-year fixed deposit rates from 2.8% to 2.15% and five-year rates from 2.8% to 2.1% [2]. Group 2: Withdrawal of Long-Term Deposit Products - Many private banks have already removed five-year fixed deposit products, while state-owned banks have significantly reduced the availability of three and five-year large-denomination certificates of deposit [3]. - The trend of withdrawing long-term deposit products is evident across various banks, with major state-owned banks no longer offering five-year large-denomination certificates of deposit on their mobile banking apps [3]. Group 3: Net Interest Margin Pressure - The prolonged low macro interest rate environment has led to a decrease in loan market quoted rates (LPR), resulting in lower bank loan yields while deposit costs remain rigid, compressing net interest margins [4]. - As of the end of Q3 2025, the net interest margin for commercial banks was reported at 1.42%, with state-owned banks at 1.31% and joint-stock banks at 1.56%, all at historical lows [4]. - Many smaller banks have paused new business for three to five-year fixed deposits and large-denomination certificates of deposit to reduce high-cost long-term funding, thereby enhancing funding flexibility [4]. Group 4: Impact on Resident Asset Allocation - Data from the central bank indicates that from January to November 2025, the growth of resident fixed deposits slowed significantly, with a noticeable shift towards higher-yielding assets such as wealth management products, insurance, and gold [5]. - The interaction between non-bank institutions and resident deposits has increased market trading activity, reflecting a trend towards diversified asset allocation [5]. - In 2025, local banks employed gift marketing and loan-deposit linkage strategies to maintain customer loyalty, while state-owned banks focused on optimizing liability structures and cost control [5]. Group 5: Outlook for 2026 - Industry experts predict that the adjustment in the deposit market will deepen in 2026, with the "deposit migration" trend expected to persist as residents continue to shift savings towards diversified assets [7]. - By the end of Q3 2025, the total scale of outstanding wealth management products reached 32.13 trillion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 9.42% [7]. - Analysts forecast that retail deposit average rates will decrease by approximately 30 basis points in 2026, with a significant increase in the growth of non-fixed deposit investments [7]. Group 6: Differentiated Strategies Among Banks - In 2026, different types of banks are expected to adopt varied strategies, with state-owned banks focusing on wealth management to offset net interest margin pressures, while smaller banks may be more sensitive to deposit rates [8]. - Smaller banks are likely to attract deposits through differentiated pricing, flexible term products, and innovative offerings linked to gold, foreign exchange, or stock indices [8]. - Banks are encouraged to enhance service levels and innovate product designs to improve the proportion of demand and short-term deposits, thereby optimizing deposit maturity structures [8].