复苏态势超预期 四季度北京甲级写字楼空置率下降

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the Beijing Grade A office market is expected to achieve a net absorption of approximately 83,000 square meters in Q4 2025, with an annual net absorption reaching 330,000 square meters, marking two consecutive years of over 300,000 square meters of absorption [1] - The report highlights that the Zhongguancun Grade A office market has a net absorption of over 176,000 square meters for the year, accounting for 53% of the city's total, setting a record high in nearly 20 years and becoming a key driver for the recovery of Beijing's office market [1] - The demand recovery in Beijing's office market this year is described as "beyond expectations" by the report [1] Group 2 - In terms of supply, the new supply of Grade A office space in Beijing this year is only 188,000 square meters, leading to a decrease in the market vacancy rate to 19.2% by the end of Q4, a year-on-year decline of approximately 1.5 percentage points [1] - Average rents in the Beijing Grade A office market continue to adjust, with the net effective rent dropping to 222 RMB per square meter per month by year-end, a year-on-year decrease of 11.5%, although the decline rate has narrowed by 4.9% compared to the previous year [1] - The report notes that despite the continuous increase in demand, it has not yet formed a core momentum strong enough to reverse the high vacancy rates and downward pressure on rents, indicating that the adjustment period for rents is still ongoing [1] Group 3 - The market is characterized by a significant disparity in performance, with high demand focused on certain high-cost performance projects, while the core area mature office market has not met expectations, leading to a "cold-hot" market pattern [2] - For the market outlook in 2026, the report suggests that insufficient macro demand will continue to be a systemic issue restricting the sustained recovery of Beijing's office market, and achieving a new supply-demand balance will take time [2] - The report recommends strengthening market monitoring and implementing relevant policy measures to guide healthy market development, such as limiting the scale and number of new office buildings and encouraging the renovation and repurposing of old office buildings [2]