2026年全球经济十大悬念：AI泡沫会破吗？黄金会否冲破5000？泽连斯基会妥协吗?

Group 1: Economic Predictions - Trump's average tariff levels are expected to decrease by the end of the year due to various pressures, including stock market declines and rising consumer prices [2] - Global central banks, excluding Japan, are likely to continue lowering interest rates, with the Federal Reserve potentially leading this trend [5] - The price of gold is predicted to exceed $5,000 per ounce, driven by central bank purchases and as a hedge against fiscal deficits and geopolitical tensions [7] Group 2: Political Landscape - Ukrainian President Zelensky is not expected to be forced to abandon the Donbas region as part of any peace agreement, due to military and political risks [3] - In the U.S., the Democratic Party is predicted to regain control of the House of Representatives in the midterm elections, which would allow them to block Trump's agenda [12] - In the Middle East, the normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel is unlikely without a clear path to Palestinian statehood, as emphasized by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman [13] Group 3: Technology and Market Trends - The AI bubble is anticipated to burst in 2026, with investors becoming more critical of tech giants, although larger diversified companies may weather the storm better than smaller firms [4] - Quantum computers are not expected to be commercially viable by 2026, but significant progress is being made in the field [8] - Tesla's market share is projected to continue declining in the U.S., EU, and China, as competition increases and Musk focuses on AI investments rather than traditional automotive business [9] Group 4: Financial Sector Insights - An increase in private credit defaults is expected, as higher interest rates challenge companies that borrowed heavily during low-rate periods [6] - The emergence of household robots is anticipated, although their functionality will be limited and they will primarily target affluent early adopters [10]