2026：钟摆两端

Group 1 - The core concept of the article revolves around the market's inherent volatility, likened to a pendulum that swings between extremes of greed and fear, rather than achieving a stable equilibrium [2][5][31] - The year 2025 is characterized by significant market fluctuations, including a recovery in valuations of leading technology stocks and unexpected events like the "equal tariffs" black swan, which impacted market sentiment [3][8][10] - The market's recovery is seen as a result of accumulated optimism following previous downturns, with a structural rebound in A-shares indicating a potential dawn of recovery [4][6] Group 2 - The "black swan" event in April 2025 led to a sharp market reaction, with fears of decoupling and supply chain disruptions causing panic selling, despite underlying economic resilience [9][10][13] - The market's bottom formation often depends on the exhaustion of pessimistic expectations rather than fundamental improvements, highlighting the importance of liquidity in asset pricing [14][15] - Active funds have shown a resurgence in 2025, with nearly 80% outperforming their benchmarks, indicating a renewed ability to capture market inefficiencies [19][21][23] Group 3 - Despite the rise of active funds, their scale remains dwarfed by passive investment strategies, with significant inflows into index funds highlighting a preference for certainty in returns [23][24] - The divergence between asset prices and the real economy is evident, as industrial profits show minimal growth while asset prices recover, suggesting a disconnect that may not be sustainable [26][27] - The article warns of the risks associated with overestimating the sustainability of current valuations, particularly in high-growth sectors like AI, where expectations may not align with reality [28][29][30]