从上市暴涨86%到暴跌70%，是资本无情，还是“故事”难续？

Group 1 - Baima Tea Industry, known as the first high-end Chinese tea stock, was listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on October 28, 2025, with an initial stock price surge of 86.7%, reaching a market value close to HK$ 8 billion [1][3] - However, the stock price quickly fell, losing 70% of its market value within two months, highlighting the market's skepticism towards the high-end Chinese tea business model represented by Baima Tea [1][3] - The company has faced challenges in its performance, with revenue growth slowing down significantly from 16.72% in 2023 to just 0.99% in 2024, and a decline in revenue of 4.42% in the first half of 2025 [7][8] Group 2 - Baima Tea has experienced a significant loss of franchisees, with over 300 franchisees leaving since 2022, which poses a substantial threat to its business model that heavily relies on franchising [10] - The changing consumer preferences have shifted from high-end gifting to a focus on the taste and experience of tea, which Baima Tea has struggled to adapt to despite attempts to launch a younger sub-brand [11][14] - The overall tea industry is facing structural challenges, including a slowdown in market growth and intense competition, with Baima Tea holding only a 1.7% market share in the high-end segment despite being the largest player [16][17] Group 3 - The company has announced a plan for full circulation of H-shares, which could increase the market's liquidity by 60%, but this move may also raise concerns about potential selling pressure from investors [6] - The tea industry is experiencing a transformation, with a need to leverage regional characteristics and enhance product quality to meet market demands [18][19] - Future trends indicate a growing demand for health-oriented and customized tea products, as well as an emphasis on enhancing consumer experience through improved service and cross-industry collaborations [20][21][24]