SINOLINK SECURITIES(SH:600109) 智通财经网·2025-12-31 07:41Core Insights - The global aerospace industry is undergoing a structural transformation akin to the Age of Exploration, driven by the rise of commercial space enterprises like SpaceX. China's commercial space sector is transitioning from a policy incubation phase to an industrial explosion phase, with 2026 expected to be a pivotal year for the industry [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Dynamics - The urgency for high-frequency networking is highlighted by the upcoming launches of the G60 and GW satellite constellations, which are set to complete initial technical validation and first launches by 2024-2025. This will lead to a critical deployment phase in 2026-2027, necessitating increased manufacturing capacity in upstream sectors [1]. - A breakthrough in capacity bottlenecks is anticipated, as reusable rockets like the Zhuque-3 from Landspace are expected to significantly reduce launch costs during the 2026-2027 period, alleviating long-standing deployment issues for satellite constellations in China [1][2]. Group 2: Market Valuation and Investment Strategy - The valuation framework for commercial aerospace is shifting from a broad narrative of Total Addressable Market (TAM) to a more concrete analysis based on Price-to-Sales (PS) ratios and order visibility. As satellite manufacturing capacity increases and launch frequencies rise, cash flows for core supporting companies in the commercial aerospace sector are expected to improve significantly [2]. - The rapid iteration of SpaceX's Falcon 9, Starship, and Starlink not only validates the business model but also creates competitive pressure that accelerates domestic policy and capital towards core companies in the sector [2]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - A "barbell" investment strategy is recommended leading up to 2026, focusing on state-owned system integrators that secure core frequency resources for stable returns, while also investing in private sector leaders in commercial rocket and satellite components for higher potential returns. Companies closely tied to the supply chain of commercial rockets and constellations are expected to benefit first from the shift towards mass production [3].