实际利率过低或推动紧缩步伐加快！小摩押注日本央行明年4月再加息

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is facing internal concerns regarding the prolonged maintenance of significantly negative real interest rates, with indications of potential further interest rate hikes, although there is no consensus on the timing or pace of these hikes [1][2][3] Group 1: Monetary Policy Concerns - Many members of the BOJ's monetary policy committee expressed worries about the current financial conditions being too loose relative to economic fundamentals, suggesting that delaying further rate hikes could pose significant risks [2] - There is a general consensus among members that the current real policy rate in Japan is the lowest globally, raising concerns about potential macroeconomic imbalances and sustainable economic growth [2] - The BOJ is considering a basic scenario of raising rates every six months, but there is also a possibility of acting sooner based on market conditions [1][3] Group 2: Rate Adjustment Strategy - The BOJ members are divided on the approach to adjusting monetary easing, with some advocating for rate hikes every few months, while others prefer a more gradual approach based on economic activity and market conditions [2][3] - The ambiguity surrounding the pace of policy adjustments extends to the views on neutral interest rates, with members acknowledging the difficulty in pre-determining these levels [3] - Concerns have been raised about the volatility in Japan's bond and foreign exchange markets due to delayed policy adjustments, with members noting that the depreciation of the yen and rising long-term bond yields reflect the low policy rate relative to inflation [3]