离岸人民币升破7.0关口

Core Viewpoint - The offshore RMB has strengthened against the USD, breaking the 7.0 threshold for the first time since September 2024, primarily due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and other supportive factors [1]. Group 1: Currency Exchange Rate - On December 25, the offshore RMB to USD exchange rate was reported at 6.9999, with an intraday high of 6.9981 [1]. - The recent appreciation of the RMB is attributed to the Federal Reserve's decision to lower the federal funds rate target range to 3.5%-3.75% on December 10, marking the sixth rate cut of the year [1]. Group 2: Trade and Economic Factors - China's trade surplus exceeded 1 trillion USD for the first 11 months of the year, contributing to the RMB's strength [1]. - The end-of-year demand for corporate foreign exchange settlements and reduced currency intervention policies have also supported the RMB's appreciation [1]. Group 3: Market Reactions - The breaking of the 7.0 threshold has triggered a wave of foreign exchange settlements among export companies and cross-border e-commerce sellers, with many considering it an opportune time to settle before the Spring Festival [1]. - Large enterprises are utilizing foreign exchange hedging tools to mitigate currency risk [1]. Group 4: Future Predictions - Analysts predict that the RMB may continue to appreciate moderately, potentially reaching a level of 6.7 by the end of 2026 [1].