美方承认犯下大错！特朗普之前真的没有料到，中国敢跟美国这么打

Core Insights - The ongoing US-China trade conflict in 2025 is expected to be a classic case in global trade history, highlighting issues of cognitive bias, supply chain restructuring, and strategic determination [1] - The initial optimism from the Trump administration regarding high tariffs has been met with unexpected strategic adjustments from China, indicating a significant shift in the dynamics of the trade war [3][5] Group 1: US Strategy and Miscalculations - The US administration underestimated China's economic resilience and the evolution of its supply chain, leading to a flawed strategy based on outdated experiences from 2018 [7] - The unilateral imposition of a 24% tariff on multiple countries, including China, was intended to create immediate pressure for negotiations, but China responded swiftly with a 34% tariff, shattering US expectations [8] - The US's attempt to escalate tariffs to 145% backfired, primarily impacting American consumers and supply chains rather than Chinese manufacturing [10] Group 2: China's Response and Strategic Evolution - China's strategy has evolved from reactive defense to proactive measures, targeting high-tech sectors and utilizing export controls to shape the battlefield [10] - The trade conflict has led to a significant increase in the self-sufficiency of China's semiconductor and electric vehicle sectors, with a shift towards exporting high-value-added products [18] - China's diversified trade network, particularly with Africa and under regional trade agreements, has provided a buffer against external shocks, demonstrating resilience in the face of US tariffs [15][17] Group 3: Policy Adjustments and Future Outlook - The US's initial strategy resulted in a policy reversal as it recognized the unsustainability of high tariffs, prompting a shift towards a more conciliatory approach [19] - A consensus was reached to pause the imposition of new tariffs for 90 days while retaining a base tariff of 10%, indicating a trend towards de-escalation in US-China trade relations [21] - The trade dynamics have fundamentally changed, with the US underestimating China's industrial capabilities and domestic market strength, leading to a more robust and strategic response from China [21][23]