2025外汇盘点：疲软的美元，反转的日元，强势的欧元

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar experienced its largest annual decline since 2017, with a drop of 9.5% in the dollar index, marking the worst performance in eight years [1][3]. Group 1: Dollar Performance - The dollar index closed at approximately 98.228, indicating a persistent downward trend [1]. - Non-US currencies rebounded significantly, with the euro and pound rising by 13.5% and 7.6% respectively, achieving their best annual performance in eight years [1]. - The dollar's decline is attributed to macroeconomic policies and political uncertainties, including concerns over the expanding US fiscal deficit and Trump's tariff policies [4]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Predictions - Market sentiment remains bearish on the dollar, with net short positions maintained since April, reflecting ongoing pessimism about its future [3]. - Analysts predict that the dollar's weakness may continue into 2026, especially if the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates while other central banks remain unchanged [3][4]. - Goldman Sachs strategists suggest that if signs of labor market recession appear or if rate cuts deepen, the dollar's decline could accelerate further [4]. Group 3: Yen and Other Currencies - The Japanese yen failed to capitalize on the dollar's weakness, remaining flat for the year despite two interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan [5]. - The yen's performance was hindered by investor disappointment over the slow pace of monetary tightening, leading to a reversal of previously established long positions [5]. - The euro and commodity currencies, such as the Australian dollar, performed well, with the Australian dollar rising over 8%, marking its best annual performance since 2020 [8]. Group 4: Chinese Yuan - The onshore Chinese yuan strengthened against the dollar, breaking the 7.0 mark and reaching a high of 6.9960, the strongest level since May 17, 2023 [8]. - Market expectations for continued appreciation of the yuan are supported by capital inflows and economic recovery prospects [8].