Core Viewpoint - The instant delivery industry is in a high growth phase, with SF Express (09699) strengthening its competitive edge as an independent third-party delivery leader, expected to show higher growth potential in the new journey of instant retail [1] Group 1: Instant Retail Market Potential - Instant retail has immense development potential, emerging as a new battleground for major players [2] - The market for narrow instant retail (excluding food delivery) in China is projected to reach 781 billion yuan in 2024, growing by 20.15% year-on-year, with a CAGR of 50% from 2018 to 2024 [2] - The online food delivery market in China is expected to grow at a CAGR of 24% from 2018 to 2024 [2] - E-commerce giants are competing around the "30-minute living circle," aiming to activate traffic through both near-field and far-field synergies [2] Group 2: Growth in Instant Delivery Demand - The order volume in China's instant delivery sector is expected to reach approximately 48.28 billion orders in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 17.6%, with a CAGR of 20.3% from 2019 to 2024 [3] - By 2030, the nationwide instant delivery order volume is projected to reach 100.84 billion orders, maintaining an annual growth rate of 13.1% from 2024 to 2030 [3] - Instant delivery platforms primarily utilize a "three-track parallel" model for capacity organization: crowdsourcing, self-operated, and labor dispatch, with crowdsourcing becoming the mainstream choice due to its lightweight asset structure [3] Group 3: SF Express's Profitability Improvement - SF Express is the largest third-party instant delivery service platform in China, aiming to become the "first brand in new consumption delivery" by covering four major scenarios: food delivery, local retail, near-field e-commerce, and near-field services [4] - The company benefits from its independent status, allowing it to match new demand effectively [4] - Profit forecasts for SF Express indicate a projected net profit of 230 million, 460 million, and 710 million yuan for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth of 73%, 100%, and 55% respectively [5] Group 4: Internal and External Synergies - Internal synergies are driven by the ecosystem of SF Holdings, enhancing internal business growth [5] - External synergies include benefiting from the new journey of instant retail, with revenue from merchants accounting for 73% of local delivery services in 2024, increasing to 77% in the first half of 2025 [5] - The company is investing in autonomous vehicles to reduce costs and enhance asset value [5] Group 5: Valuation and Target Price - The target price for SF Express is set at 18.1 HKD, with a projected market capitalization of 16.6 billion HKD based on a 25x PE ratio for adjusted net profit in 2026 [5] - The current price offers a potential upside of 64% from the target price, with a "recommended" rating for the first coverage [5]
华创证券：首次覆盖顺丰同城(09699)给予“推荐”评级 目标价18.1港元