在物流端，顺丰同城与永辉超市、联华超市等多家商超零售品牌保持密切合作，保障配送范围全覆盖和 高峰期订单全接起，同时针对商超货品种类多、体积大、重量沉、需求具有分散性等打造出严格的规范 化配送流程，保障外贸商品"线上下单，平均一小时急送全城"。 此外，凭借第三方平台中立、开放的特性，顺丰同城已与抖音、阿里、微信等平台达成全生态合作。这 种开放的合作模式支持一站式接入全渠道生态，通过智能化调度、定制化服务帮助外贸企业集中资源和 节省成本，进一步实现优化经营、扩大单量、提升利润。 业内人士指出，"出口转内销"本质是供应链的重构，需要商流、物流、信息流的高效协同。在这一转型 过程中，电商平台和零售巨头发挥着前端渠道支撑作用，而以顺丰同城为代表的即时配送平台则扮演着 零售物流基础设施的角色。这种新型合作模式不仅解决了出口企业触达国内消费者的难题，更通过高效 的物流服务建立起消费者的信任，为传统外贸商品转化为适销对路的"内需爆品"搭建快车道。 当前，我国内需市场不仅庞大，且正处于稳步复苏阶段。数据显示，在消费品以旧换新加力扩围等政策 拉动下，1-2月份，社会消费品零售总额83731亿元，同比增长4.0%，增速比上年全年加 ...

近期，"对等关税"靴子落地，此次加征关税的范围和幅度远超市场预期，导致全球资本市场出现巨震，寻找避险资产成为投资焦点。 回顾今年，以科技为核心的中国资产迎来了价值"重估时刻"，中国科技股涨势远超美股。不过美股大跌与关税战、自身涨幅过大有关，中国科技资产的估值 仍处于历史底部，下跌空间有限，中国资产重估还远未结束。 目前科技股的机会点，会在自主创新逻辑和内需逻辑。具体来看，2024年我国消费对GDP增长贡献率高达44.5%，消费作为终极需求，在科技不断赋能下， 带来了效率革命，所产生的增长动能或许最为强劲，在市场波动中形成了"安全垫"。 作为现代消费社会里重要的"水电煤"，并且集合了AI、无人配送、低空经济等技术应用的即时配送行业，近些年迅猛发展，就很好地佐证了这一点。 根据沙利文《2024年中国即时配送行业趋势白皮书》，去年中国即配行业订单规模达482.8亿单，同比增长17.6%，2030年行业有望达到千亿级别规模，其 中，AI技术应用将助力配送进一步提效。 根据独立第三方即时配送服务平台——顺丰同城发布的2024年财报，公司全年总收入157.46亿元，同比增长27.1%；全年净利润1.32亿元，同比大幅增长 ...

证券研究报告·海外公司点评·软件服务(HS) 顺丰同城（09699.HK） 2024 年年报点评：利润稳健释放，看好 2025 年继续成长 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 12,390 | 15,746 | 19,602 | 23,622 | 27,874 | | 同比(%) | 20.69 | 27.09 | 24.49 | 20.51 | 18.00 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 50.60 | 132.46 | 247.34 | 362.38 | 491.45 | | 同比(%) | 117.63 | 161.80 | 86.73 | 46.51 | 35.62 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.06 | 0.14 | 0.27 | 0.40 | 0.54 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 147.46 | 56.33 | 30.16 | 20.59 | 15.18 | [ ...

Core Insights - The instant delivery industry is transitioning from "rapid expansion" to "high-quality development," driven by demand upgrades and technological revolutions [1] - SF Express City (顺丰同城) serves as a model for high-quality breakthroughs in the instant delivery sector, showcasing significant financial growth in its 2024 annual report [1] Financial Performance - In 2024, SF Express City achieved revenue of 15.75 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27% [1] - Gross profit reached 1.07 billion yuan, up 35% year-on-year, while net profit soared to 130 million yuan, marking a 162% increase [1][3] - The company maintained a gross margin of 6.8% and doubled its net margin from 0.4% to 0.8% [3] Business Strategy - SF Express City focuses on "high-quality healthy growth," enhancing its market share among key accounts (KA) and improving customer acquisition efficiency for small and medium-sized businesses [4] - The company introduced a one-on-one "exclusive delivery" service and expanded its "hourly delivery" capabilities for urban logistics [4][5] Service Segmentation - In 2024, revenue from same-city delivery services reached 9.121 billion yuan, a 23.5% increase, with business-to-business (B2B) and business-to-consumer (B2C) segments growing by 28.1% and 12.2%, respectively [4] - The last-mile delivery service generated approximately 6.625 billion yuan, reflecting a 32.5% growth [4] Market Expansion - The company is actively targeting the lower-tier retail market, with county-level coverage exceeding 1,300 locations and a 121% year-on-year revenue growth in these areas [7] - SF Express City launched its "SoFast" service in Hong Kong, tapping into a growing demand for online delivery services, with the market expected to grow by 12.2% in 2024 [7] Technological Advancements - The company is leveraging AI and unmanned delivery technologies to enhance operational efficiency, achieving a 95% on-time delivery rate and an average delivery time of 22 minutes for orders within 3 kilometers [9] - SF Express City has integrated AI capabilities into its logistics operations, collaborating with various AI model providers [9] Social Responsibility and Long-term Vision - The company established a rider care fund of 5 million yuan and a 30 million yuan public welfare fund to enhance rider welfare and safety [10] - In 2024, SF Express City repurchased nearly 200 million HKD worth of shares, demonstrating its commitment to long-term growth and shareholder value [11] Future Outlook - The instant retail market is projected to grow from 600 billion yuan in 2023 to 1.2 trillion yuan by 2025, positioning SF Express City as a benchmark for efficiency and value in the industry [12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6] Core Insights - The company's performance exceeded expectations with a revenue increase of 27% and a net profit increase of 162% for 2024, reaching revenue of 15.8 billion and net profit of 130 million [1][5] - The growth in profit is attributed to an increase in order volume and optimization of the business structure, with high-quality customers contributing more to revenue [1] - The company is expanding its coverage in lower-tier cities, with a revenue growth of 121% in these markets, and has improved its customer structure by deepening cooperation with key accounts [2][3] Financial Performance - For 2024, the company reported a gross margin of 6.8% and a net margin of 0.84%, with a sales expense ratio of 1.5% and a management expense ratio of 4.0% [1] - The forecast for net profit from 2025 to 2027 is 257 million, 409 million, and 560 million respectively, with growth rates of 94%, 59%, and 37% [4][5] - The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 30, 19, and 14 respectively [4] Revenue Breakdown - The company's same-city delivery revenue reached 9.12 billion, accounting for 58% of total revenue, with To B revenue at 6.69 billion (up 28%) and To C revenue at 2.43 billion (up 12%) [2] - Last-mile delivery revenue grew by 32% to 6.62 billion, representing 42% of total revenue, driven by an increase in e-commerce return rates and enhanced delivery capabilities [2] Market Expansion - The company has expanded its coverage to over 2,300 cities and counties, with more than 1,300 in third-tier and below markets [2] - The company has achieved full-scenario coverage in sectors such as dining and pharmacies, with tea delivery revenue increasing by 73% [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 13.50, indicating a potential upside of 49.5% from the current price of HKD 9.03 [2][12]. Core Insights - The company is expected to see revenue growth driven by the demand for same-city delivery services, with projected growth rates of 23% for 2025 and 21% for 2026. However, the average delivery revenue per order may slightly decline year-on-year due to changes in order structure [2][6]. - Profit margins are anticipated to improve due to economies of scale, with management forecasting a profit margin of at least 2% by 2027, approaching the industry norm of 3-5% [2][6]. - The company reported a significant increase in net profit for 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 289% to RMB 79 million, driven by scale effects, customer structure optimization, and operational efficiency improvements [6][7]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to reach RMB 19,350 million in 2025, with a growth rate of 22.9% compared to the previous year. The revenue from same-city delivery services is expected to be RMB 11,316 million, while last-mile delivery is projected at RMB 8,034 million [5][13]. - The gross profit for 2025 is estimated at RMB 1,374 million, with a gross margin of 7.1% [5][13]. - Adjusted operating profit is expected to be RMB 293 million in 2025, with an adjusted operating margin of 1.5% [5][13]. Market Position and Performance - The company has shown resilience in its market position, with a market capitalization of approximately HKD 6,571.76 million and a 52-week high of HKD 12.60 [4][12]. - The average daily trading volume is reported at 0.69 million shares, indicating active trading interest [4][12]. - The stock has experienced a year-to-date change of -2.80%, reflecting market volatility [4][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 13.50, indicating a potential upside of 49.5% from the current price of HKD 9.03 [2][12]. Core Insights - The company is expected to experience significant growth in revenue, with projections of 23% and 21% growth for the fiscal years 2025 and 2026, respectively, driven by demand for same-city delivery services and an increase in order volume [2][6]. - The management anticipates that profit margins will continue to improve, aiming for a margin of at least 2% by 2027, approaching the industry norm of 3-5% [2][6]. - The report highlights a notable trend of scalable profit growth, with a substantial increase in net profit expected in 2024, driven by operational efficiencies and an expanding customer base [6][7]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to reach RMB 19.35 billion in 2025, with a growth rate of 22.9% compared to the previous year [5][13]. - The gross profit is expected to be RMB 1.374 billion in 2025, reflecting a gross margin of 7.1% [5][13]. - Adjusted net profit is forecasted to be RMB 269 million in 2025, with an adjusted net profit margin of 1.4% [5][13]. Market Performance - The company's stock has a 52-week high of HKD 12.60 and a low of HKD 8.40, with a current market capitalization of approximately HKD 6.57 billion [4][12]. - The average daily trading volume is reported at 0.69 million shares [4]. Revenue Breakdown - The report indicates that the same-city delivery service revenue is expected to be RMB 11.316 billion in 2025, with a growth rate of 24% [7][13]. - Last-mile delivery revenue is projected to reach RMB 8.034 billion in 2025, with a growth rate of 21% [7][13]. Cost Structure - The total operating costs are expected to be RMB 17.977 billion in 2025, leading to a projected operating profit of RMB 274 million [7][13]. - The report outlines a focus on cost management and operational efficiency to enhance profitability [6][7]. Conclusion - The report presents a positive outlook for the company, emphasizing its growth potential in the same-city delivery market and the expected improvement in profit margins over the coming years [2][6][7].

Summary of SF Express City Call Transcript Company Overview - **Company**: SF Express City - **Industry**: Logistics and Delivery Services Key Points 2024 Performance Highlights - **Revenue**: Reached 15.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27% driven by post-pandemic market recovery, particularly in last-mile delivery for external merchants and personal customers [3] - **Profitability**: Gross profit exceeded 1 billion yuan, improving by over 35% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 6.8%. Net profit doubled year-on-year, with a net margin of 0.8% [3] Business Segments - **Merchant Business**: Benefited from economic policies and consumer stimulus, with significant growth in chain brand clients and new street business stores. Major brands like McDonald's, KFC, and Luckin Coffee saw a notable increase in partnership stores [5] - **Instant Retail**: Non-food business grew over 30%. C2C business faced macroeconomic challenges but improved through dedicated delivery products and user conversion, enhancing customer retention [6] Logistics Industry Outlook - **Last-Mile Delivery**: Overall performance in the logistics sector was strong, with increased scale and penetration in last-mile delivery. E-commerce return demands surged, leading to significant growth in collection services [8] - **Future Projections**: Anticipated revenue growth of at least 25% in the first half of 2025, with a full-year growth expectation exceeding 20% [12] Cost Management and Profitability - **Cost Structure**: Company plans to enhance profitability through scale effects, decreasing expense ratios, and optimizing cost structures. A net margin increase of 2-3 percentage points is expected over the next three years [11] - **Expense Growth**: GMA expenses increased by 30% to approximately 360 million yuan, reflecting higher marketing and advertising investments to support business expansion [19] Market Competition and Strategy - **Competitive Landscape**: The restaurant delivery sector remains competitive, while instant retail shows higher growth potential. The company is focusing on high-value scenarios and enhancing self-operated capabilities [21][22] - **Long-Term Goals**: Aiming for a mid-term last-mile delivery penetration rate of 30-50%, with annual increases of about 3 percentage points [23] Future Development Directions - **Operational Efficiency**: Plans to integrate AI and unmanned technologies to improve management efficiency and achieve higher net profit levels [14] - **Customer Base Expansion**: The company has a solid foundation with thousands of active merchant clients, which will support revenue growth [13] Additional Insights - **Rider Management**: The growth rate of active riders has slowed to single digits, focusing on improving rider income rather than increasing rider numbers [18] - **Market Dynamics**: The company is not engaged in price wars but is experiencing natural price adjustments due to scale effects and market structure changes [17] This summary encapsulates the key insights and data from the SF Express City call transcript, highlighting the company's performance, strategic direction, and market outlook.

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company has shown strong growth in multi-scenario demand, with significant scale efficiency being released [1] - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 15.746 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 27.11% [4] - The last-mile delivery service revenue grew by 32.5% to RMB 6.625 billion in 2024, driven by increased demand and operational efficiency [4] - The company has expanded its KA customer base and enhanced its presence in lower-tier markets, with a 121% increase in county-level revenue [4] - The company is expected to maintain steady growth in its same-city delivery business due to its strong logistics capabilities and customer partnerships [4] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: RMB 12.4 billion - 2024: RMB 15.746 billion - 2025E: RMB 19.375 billion - 2026E: RMB 23.752 billion - 2027E: RMB 28.978 billion - Net profit projections are as follows: - 2023: RMB 51 million - 2024: RMB 132 million - 2025E: RMB 256 million - 2026E: RMB 461 million - 2027E: RMB 594 million - The company’s earnings per share are projected to increase from RMB 0.06 in 2023 to RMB 0.65 in 2027 [2][5] Market Data - As of March 31, 2025, the closing price of the company's stock was HKD 8.99, with a market capitalization of HKD 82.47 billion [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 13.80 [7][8]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of RMB 15.7 billion for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 27%, and a net profit of RMB 132 million, which is a significant increase of 162% year-on-year [1]. - The growth is attributed to breakthroughs in new KA merchants, optimization of business structure, and expanded network economies of scale [1][2]. - The company has successfully partnered with major brands and expanded its active merchant base to 650,000, a 39% increase year-on-year [2]. - The last-mile delivery revenue grew by 32.5% in 2024, benefiting from the overall growth in the express delivery industry [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company achieved a revenue of RMB 15.7 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 27% and a net profit of RMB 132 million, reflecting a 162% increase [1]. - The revenue for 2025 is projected to be RMB 19.5 billion, a 12% increase from previous estimates, and the net profit is expected to be RMB 270 million [4][6]. Market Position and Growth Drivers - The company has made significant inroads in the KA customer segment, partnering with brands like Sam's Club and Kenyue Coffee, and has added over 7,500 new stores in 2024 [2]. - The county-level revenue saw a remarkable growth of 121% year-on-year, indicating strong demand in lower-tier markets [2]. Valuation and Price Target - The target price has been adjusted to HKD 13.80 based on a segmental PS valuation, reflecting a 40% discount compared to the median valuation of comparable companies [4][13]. - The valuation considers the growth potential and profitability advantages of the company, with a focus on the last-mile delivery and same-city delivery services [4][13].