蓝思科技(300433)首次覆盖报告：折叠屏或成为IPHONE创新焦点

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Lens Technology (300433.SZ) is initiated with a "Buy" rating, with projected revenues for 2025E/2026E/2027E at 90.657 billion, 112.837 billion, and 134.903 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 29.7%, 24.5%, and 19.6% respectively, and net profits of 5.424 billion, 6.705 billion, and 7.931 billion yuan, with growth rates of 49.7%, 23.6%, and 18.3% respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 26.2, 21.2, and 17.9 times [1] Group 2 - Lens Technology is a one-stop precision manufacturing solution provider for the global smart terminal industry, primarily focusing on mobile glass processing, with capabilities in integrating various materials [2] - The company is expected to benefit significantly from the innovation cycle of iPhone, particularly with the anticipated launch of foldable screen products in 2026, which is projected to drive performance [2] - In the AI glasses sector, Lens Technology provides comprehensive production services for Rokid Glasses, positioning itself to capture early advantages in the smart glasses market [2] - The company is also expanding into humanoid robotics, with plans to undertake the assembly of Lingxi X2 robots in 2025 and participate in the development and manufacturing of key components [2] Group 3 - Contrary to common perceptions, the sales proportion of the iPhone Pro version has increased from 65.2% to 77.4% over the past three years, indicating a significant upgrade in market demand [3] - The launch of the iPhone foldable screen model is expected to fill the demand gap in the high-end market, despite concerns about its acceptance due to the delayed launch compared to competitors [3] - The company anticipates that the introduction of the iPhone foldable screen will leverage its brand premium and high average selling price (ASP) to achieve better-than-expected market performance [3] Group 4 - Key assumptions include projected revenue growth rates of approximately 29.7%, 24.5%, and 19.6% for 2025-2027, with smartphone and computer segments expected to grow at around 30.0%, 25.5%, and 20.0% respectively [3] - The company expects to maintain stable gross margins due to product structure optimization, vertical integration of upstream materials, and global capacity layout, with gross margins projected at 16.1%, 15.9%, and 15.8% for 2025-2027 [3] Group 5 - The launch of foldable screens by Apple and other smartphone brands in 2026 is expected to significantly boost the upstream supply chain [4]