2031 年展望：供应与需求驱动，鱼粉能否稳固市场地位？

Market Overview - Fish meal, a high-protein feed ingredient for aquaculture, is projected to reach a global market size of $8.222 billion by 2031, with a stable CAGR of 3.1% from 2025 to 2031, indicating steady market growth [1] Key Market Drivers - The global fish meal supply is expected to show slight growth, with a projected total production of 5.4 million tons by 2025, supported by Peru's fishing quotas of 4.63 million tons for anchovies, which will contribute over 1 million tons to fish meal production [3] - China's aquaculture industry is transitioning towards large-scale operations, driving demand for fish meal. Despite environmental regulations and rising costs, China's aquatic product output is expected to grow by 4.51% year-on-year in the first nine months of 2025, with marine aquaculture output increasing by 5.65% [3] - The fish meal market is experiencing a price recovery, with prices for Peruvian super fish meal rising by approximately 4,000 CNY/ton domestically and from $1,750/ton to $2,250/ton internationally, boosting confidence across the supply chain [4] Industry Challenges - The supply of fish meal is highly concentrated in a few countries, particularly Peru, leading to uncertainties due to fluctuating fishing quotas based on resource assessments. For instance, Peru's B season quota for 2025 was set at 1.63 million tons, lower than market expectations, impacting global supply dynamics [5][6] - The rapid development and application of alternative protein sources are squeezing traditional fish meal market shares. Innovations include fermented cottonseed protein, insect protein, and upgraded soybean protein, providing cost-effective and stable supply alternatives for feed companies [5][6] - High fish meal prices have diminished its cost-effectiveness as a feed ingredient. The domestic price of Peruvian super fish meal is expected to remain high, which may compel feed companies to accelerate the development and application of alternative protein sources, further reducing fish meal demand [7]