2025年，保险股凭什么成为A股涨幅最大的“意外”

Core Viewpoint - The insurance sector in China's A-share market has emerged as a standout performer in 2025, with significant price increases and a strong upward trend since the lows of 2024, outperforming both banking and non-bank financial sectors [1][6]. Market Performance - The insurance sector index closed at 1554.89 points by December 31, 2025, with notable short-term momentum reflected in its 10-day, 20-day, and 60-day price increases [1]. - The total market capitalization of the five major listed insurance companies grew from approximately 2.16 trillion yuan to over 3.3 trillion yuan, an increase of over 1.1 trillion yuan [5]. Individual Company Performance - New China Life Insurance led the sector with a price increase of over 45% in 2025, driven by high earnings elasticity and a 58.9% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first three quarters [2]. - Ping An Insurance's stock price rose by 36.53% in 2025, reaching a peak of 71.98 yuan per share, attributed to its proactive asset-liability management and strong financial ecosystem [3]. - China Pacific Insurance's stock reached a new high of 43 yuan per share, supported by effective life insurance transformation and improved profitability in property insurance [4]. - China Life and China Re also achieved significant returns, with China Life benefiting from reduced interest rate risks and China Re excelling in property insurance profitability [5]. Valuation and Market Sentiment - Despite the strong stock performance, insurance stocks remain undervalued, with P/EV ratios generally between 0.6 and 0.9, significantly lower than consumer sector valuations [6]. - The market's confidence in the long-term profitability of the insurance sector is gradually recovering, with expectations for P/EV ratios to return to 1.0 in the future [6]. Policy Impact - Regulatory policies have played a crucial role in the sector's performance, focusing on reducing costs, expanding investment opportunities, and promoting market order [7][12]. - The introduction of a dynamic adjustment mechanism for predetermined interest rates has significantly lowered liability costs, enhancing the sector's profitability [8]. - The health insurance market has responded positively to policy changes, with premium income reaching 894.3 billion yuan in the first ten months of 2025 [9]. Future Outlook - The insurance sector is expected to enter a "golden development period" in 2026, with anticipated double-digit growth in new business value and premium income driven by strong demand for dividend insurance and health products [21]. - The investment environment is projected to improve, with a continued focus on high-dividend blue-chip stocks and technology innovation stocks, supporting a stable investment return of around 5% [22]. - The sector's valuation is expected to gradually recover, with many institutions predicting a return to 1.0 P/EV, indicating substantial potential for price appreciation [22][23].