贵州茅台重大改革，新周期从此开始！

Core Viewpoint - The 2026 Guizhou Moutai National Distributor Conference emphasizes a consumer-centric approach and the need for a market-oriented transformation in Moutai's marketing strategy, marking a significant event in the company's marketing history [1][7]. Marketing Strategy - Moutai aims to align its products and pricing with market demand and consumer willingness [2][8]. - The 2026 product launch plan will see a reduction in high-value products [2][8]. - The company intends to maintain reasonable pricing expectations, allowing prices to adjust with the market [2][8]. - Moutai plans to develop an integrated online and offline channel network, encouraging distributors to establish authorized online stores for broader and more compliant operations [2][8]. - The distribution policy for high-value products will be canceled [2][8]. - The focus will be on maintaining existing customer bases while targeting new economic and business consumption trends, including personal consumption scenarios [2][8]. Product Matrix Adjustment - On December 30, iMoutai announced an adjustment to the product matrix for 2026, introducing six major series, including classic, premium, and low-alcohol products, which will include various Moutai offerings [2][8]. Industry Impact - The changes are significant for Moutai, the liquor industry, and the broader consumer sector, with expectations that the price of Moutai will stabilize throughout 2026 despite short-term fluctuations [3][9]. - Direct supply from manufacturers to distributors will help ensure consumers can purchase authentic products at lower prices, preventing market disruption from low-priced resales and reducing the spread of counterfeit products [3][9]. Consumer Demographics - The perception that younger consumers are moving away from liquor is overstated; the primary demographic for liquor consumption remains individuals aged 35-55, a trend expected to continue [3][10]. - The high-end liquor market is projected to grow due to an increasing number of middle-class and high-net-worth individuals, despite an overall decline in lower-end liquor consumption [4][10]. Economic Context - The liquor industry is currently facing a cyclical downturn influenced by broader economic conditions, with a need for improved consumer spending capacity to drive recovery [5][10]. - Moutai's primary consumers are concentrated in wealthier demographics, and as long as wealth continues to rise, the company can offset volume declines with price increases [5][11]. Stock Performance - Since 2015, Moutai's stock price has generally mirrored the price trends of Moutai liquor, with a notable stability in stock price despite a drop in liquor prices in 2025 [6][12]. - The company's dividend payout ratio has significantly increased, providing reassurance to investors amid concerns about short-term performance in a low CPI environment [6][12]. Future Outlook - The high-end liquor sector is expected to maintain its investment appeal, particularly if CPI stabilizes above 1% in 2026, signaling a potential end to the current crisis in the liquor industry [7][13]. - The investment value of high-end liquor companies is considered rare, with the current economic cycle presenting a unique opportunity for investors [7][13].