HTSC(SH:601688) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-12-31 11:44Core Viewpoint - The offshore bond market for Chinese enterprises is experiencing stable growth in issuance, with a notable performance in the high-yield sector, as evidenced by a total issuance of approximately $312.26 billion in 2025, marking a 24% increase from 2024 [2][3]. Group 1: Issuance Overview - In 2025, the total issuance of Chinese offshore bonds reached approximately $312.26 billion, with 1,448 bonds issued, reflecting a year-on-year growth of about 24% [2][3]. - The market has become the largest offshore dollar bond market in Asia and the second largest globally [3]. - The issuance structure is diversified, with 791 dollar bonds, 375 renminbi bonds, and bonds in other currencies including Hong Kong dollars, Japanese yen, and euros [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The second half of 2025 saw improved issuance conditions due to successful restructuring of real estate debts, with net financing gaps turning positive [2][3]. - The dual-currency structure of the offshore bond market has strengthened, with a continued trend towards currency diversification [3]. Group 3: Sectoral Insights - The structure of offshore debt issuance is dominated by financial bonds (53%), followed by industrial bonds (24%), with real estate and urban investment bonds making up 15% and 8% respectively [4]. - New growth points in the market include industrial bonds, internet company bonds (e.g., Alibaba, Tencent), and green bonds, particularly following the launch of green bond pilot programs [4][6]. Group 4: Secondary Market Performance - The secondary market for Chinese offshore bonds has shown positive returns, with the Markit iBoxx Chinese dollar bond index rising by 6.88% by the end of 2025 [7][10]. - High-yield Chinese dollar bonds outperformed investment-grade bonds, with a return of 7.94% compared to 7.21% for investment-grade bonds [7][10]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The repayment pressure for offshore bonds is expected to remain significant in 2026, particularly from April to July, with a total repayment demand peaking during this period [12]. - Despite the anticipated repayment pressures, the market is expected to continue its recovery trend, although large-scale issuance may not be realized [12].