Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-12-31 12:03Core Viewpoint - The high-end liquor market, represented by Moutai and Wuliangye, is experiencing a significant price decline, leading to concerns about market confidence and a potential restructuring of the industry [1][2][11]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The overall white liquor sector has seen a decline of approximately 7% since December, with Moutai's price dropping to around 1500 yuan and Wuliangye's to about 780 yuan, reflecting intensified supply-demand conflicts [1][11]. - Moutai and Wuliangye have initiated measures to stabilize prices, including Moutai's decision to halt the release of unfulfilled quotas and reduce the supply of high-value products [1][2][22]. - Wuliangye has adjusted its payment policy for the first time since 2014, offering a discount of 119 yuan per bottle to ease financial pressure on distributors [2][31]. Group 2: Strategic Adjustments - Moutai's recent actions include holding meetings with distributors to communicate its commitment to controlling supply and stabilizing prices, which has led to a rebound in Moutai's price to around 1600 yuan [1][22][29]. - Wuliangye has implemented various incentives, including market expansion rewards and bottle scanning subsidies, to enhance channel vitality and stabilize its pricing system [2][31]. - The report indicates a shift in the industry from "volume-driven by price" to "price-driven by volume," emphasizing the importance of sales performance [2][3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The adjustments made by leading companies are expected to gradually alleviate overall inventory pressure in the industry, although other brands still face significant pricing and inventory challenges [2][3]. - The industry is undergoing a structural transition from rapid growth to rational management, with a focus on maintaining channel health and price stability for future high-quality development [3][14]. - The performance of sales and collections before and after the Spring Festival will be critical in determining the industry's trajectory [2][36].