对话野村发达市场首席经济学家：美联储动态变化或将更剧烈

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is facing a rare conflict between its dual mandate of achieving "full employment" and "price stability," a situation not seen since the stagflation of the 1970s [1] - There is a notable division within the Federal Reserve, with some officials advocating for a more aggressive stance while others support a more dovish approach [1] - The December dot plot indicates a split among Federal Reserve officials, with 7 members favoring no changes in 2026 and 8 members supporting at least two rate cuts [1] Group 2 - Some Federal Reserve officials expect inflation caused by tariffs to peak in the first quarter of next year before declining, while others are concerned about persistently high inflation [2] - Nomura forecasts that the U.S. economy will remain resilient in 2026, with real GDP expected to grow by 2.4% [2] - The unemployment rate is projected to decrease to 4.0% by the end of the year, supported by easing labor supply pressures and accelerated AI-driven business investments [2] - Despite anticipated relief from tariff-induced inflation, core services inflation is expected to keep the Federal Reserve cautious, leading to rate cuts in June and September 2026 [2]