布米普特拉北京投资基金管理有限公司：展望2026年 美国经济温和增长成主要预期

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates a mixed outlook on the U.S. economy, with some institutions predicting moderate growth driven by consumer spending and AI-related investments, while others express concerns about inflation and labor market slowdowns [3][7][10] Group 2 - Bank of America Global Research forecasts U.S. economic growth to remain around 2% by the end of 2026, driven by tax reforms and strong consumer spending [3] - Goldman Sachs anticipates that the U.S. economy will outperform most other major economies, with a global GDP growth rate of approximately 2.8% by 2026, while acknowledging potential structural pressures on the job market from AI [3] - JPMorgan warns of a 35% probability of recession in the U.S. and globally by 2026, citing persistent inflation and a slowing labor market as key concerns [7] - Ernst & Young suggests that U.S. economic growth may slightly slow in 2026, primarily driven by affluent consumers and AI investments, while low-income households face financial pressures from high prices and borrowing costs [7] - S&P Global predicts the Federal Reserve may implement two 25 basis point rate cuts in the second half of 2026, which could support borrowing and investment activities [10] - The overall economic outlook is characterized as mixed, with moderate growth consensus but significant internal disparities, persistent inflation, and monetary policy adjustments being critical variables for future economic direction [10]