车市告别顺风时代

Core Insights - The Chinese automotive market is at a historic crossroads, with increasing penetration of new energy vehicles (NEVs) and a shift in market dominance, marking the end of the era of broad market growth and the beginning of a multi-dimensional competition focused on technology, ecology, and globalization [1] Market Performance - In November 2025, retail sales of passenger vehicles in China reached 2.225 million units, a year-on-year decline of 8.1% and a month-on-month decline of 1.1% [2] - The retail sales of fuel vehicles fell by 22% year-on-year, while pure electric models saw a 9.2% increase, pushing the NEV retail penetration rate to 59.3%, which further rose to 62.3% by mid-December [3] Competitive Landscape - The competition in the NEV sector has shifted from growth to a focus on existing market share, with companies now competing on technology iteration, ecosystem building, and organizational efficiency [5] - BYD's domestic sales in November 2025 were 348,300 units, down 26.81% year-on-year, indicating increased competitive pressure and a need for technological advancement [5] - Chery's wholesale sales in November 2025 reached the top three among NEV manufacturers, with a year-on-year growth of 54% and a market share of 6.5% [6] Export Dynamics - Chinese automotive exports surpassed 700,000 units in November 2025, marking a transition to a more localized production and ecosystem output model in the global market [4][10] - From January to November 2025, China exported 6.343 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 18.7%, with NEV exports doubling and becoming a key driver of overseas growth [9] Strategic Shifts - Companies are adopting diverse strategies for international expansion, with BYD focusing on localized production and ecosystem integration, while Chery emphasizes high-value market penetration through technology [10][11] - New entrants like NIO and Li Auto are facing challenges in their unique business models, while Leap Motor is validating its differentiated survival path through vertical integration and cost control [9] Policy Implications - The adjustment of the new energy vehicle purchase tax policy in 2026 is expected to compel companies to enhance cost control and supply chain optimization [14] - The automotive industry is anticipated to shift from a "policy-driven" growth model to a "value-driven" one, emphasizing high-quality transitions [15] Future Outlook - The market is expected to see a modest growth of around 3% in 2026, with NEV penetration continuing to rise but at a slower pace [15][16] - Companies are preparing for intensified competition by focusing on product iteration, technological implementation, and cost optimization in both domestic and international markets [17][18]