为何你总在“高买低卖”？揭秘投资行为背后的人性心理偏差

Market Overview - The A-share market shows a significant characteristic of "strong technology, stable cycles," with overall performance being differentiated [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3965.12 points, remaining flat compared to the previous trading day, while the Shenzhen market was more active, with the Shenzhen Component Index rising by 0.49% and the ChiNext Index increasing by 0.63% [1] - The STAR 50 Index performed notably well, with a rise of 1.01% and increased trading volume, indicating a clear preference for the technology innovation sector [1] - The overall market turnover remained active at 21,426 billion, reflecting differing risk preferences among investors [1] Sector Performance - The oil and petrochemical sector led the market with a strong performance, rising by 2.63%, followed by cyclical and manufacturing sectors such as automobiles, non-ferrous metals, and machinery, all of which saw gains exceeding 1.3% [1] - In contrast, sectors like retail and real estate experienced noticeable adjustments [1] Investor Behavior - The market phenomenon reflects common psychological behaviors among investors, often leading to the "buy high, sell low" cycle due to panic selling during short-term downturns and chasing prices during bullish trends [2] - This behavior is rooted in cognitive biases rather than information asymmetry, creating opportunities for rational investors to achieve long-term excess returns [2] Psychological Traps - The concept of "short-term myopia" is highlighted, where investors overreact to short-term performance and news while neglecting the long-term cash flow generation ability of companies [3] - Another related trap is "linear extrapolation," where trends are assumed to continue indefinitely, leading to extreme market sentiments during bull and bear markets [3] Value Investment Philosophy - Value investment provides a framework to help investors recognize and resist inherent psychological tendencies, focusing on long-term business models and economic value [4] - Investors are encouraged to maintain a "margin of safety" by purchasing stocks significantly below their estimated intrinsic value to account for future uncertainties and potential errors in judgment [4][5] Long-term Investment Perspective - The ultimate goal of investing is not just financial analysis but also a long-term journey of self-discipline against human weaknesses [5] - Long-term returns will reward those who can overcome instinctual impulses and maintain vigilance during market extremes [6] - Ordinary investors can cultivate this "foresight" through systematic decision-making processes, maintaining clear buy/sell disciplines, and regularly reviewing investment decisions to identify cognitive biases [6]