Core Insights - The year 2025 has been characterized by significant market volatility, with the US dollar depreciating and the euro strengthening, while gold prices surged over 70% to reach $4,500 per ounce, indicating a shift towards a more "financialized" order in the market [1][2][5] - Investors are advised to understand the transformation of fear into pricing, which will help them navigate the capital opportunities in 2026 [2][10] - The market has shown resilience despite numerous uncertainties, with a cautious optimism for 2026 as macro conditions align towards a "Goldilocks" scenario [2][10] Market Performance - As of December 28, 2025, silver led the market with a 173.13% increase, followed by gold at 73.91%, and other indices like the S&P 500 rising by 17.26% [3] - Conversely, light crude oil saw the largest decline at 19.63%, with other assets like Brent crude and Ethereum also experiencing significant drops [3] Predictive Discrepancies - The year 2025 exhibited a systematic misalignment between predictions and actual market performance, with many forecasts underestimating the resilience of risk assets [4][5] - Despite predictions of a recession, growth did not significantly falter, and the Federal Reserve adjusted interest rates downwards, contrary to earlier expectations [5][6] Key Variables Influencing the Market - Five main variables have driven market behavior in 2025: 1. Repricing of dollar credit and institutional risk premiums due to uncertainties in fiscal sustainability and central bank independence [7] 2. The rise of real assets, particularly gold, as a hedge against geopolitical and institutional uncertainties [7] 3. The interplay of demand and supply pricing in energy markets, reflecting concerns over inflation [7] 4. Global liquidity mechanisms affecting financing costs and volatility [8] 5. A concentrated narrative around AI, which has become a focal point for investment and valuation [8] 2026 Capital Outlook - The asset pricing logic for 2026 will shift from explaining the world to pricing discount rates, with a focus on maintaining financial conditions that support financing [10] - The emphasis will be on the infrastructure for AI, transitioning from merely acquiring GPUs to establishing sustainable computing factories [11] - Key factors influencing the success of this transition include financial conditions, visibility of returns, supply-side engineering, and regulatory certainty [12]
2025年预测错了多少？2026年资本风口在哪里？
3 6 Ke·2025-12-30 11:29